Anti-dynasty bill faces Senate hurdle, analysts say

By Pexcel John Bacon

THE PROPOSED Anti-Political Dynasty Act could reshape strategies ahead of the 2028 elections, though political analysts said the measure faces steep odds in the Senate and may not significantly weaken political clans without broader electoral reforms.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said the Senate remains the biggest obstacle because many senators belong to political families or rely on alliances with local dynasties.

“The Senate is the harder arena,” Mr. Tapia told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger, noting that the bill’s fate depends on whether lawmakers are willing to spend political capital on reforms that directly affect the country’s political elite.

He added that a watered-down version of the proposal has a stronger chance of passage than stricter versions imposing broader restrictions.

The House of Representatives on May 20 approved House Bill No. 8389, which seeks to prohibit spouses and relatives up to the second degree of consanguinity or affinity from simultaneously running for or holding elective positions in the same locality.

If enacted, Mr. Tapia said the measure could alter the strategy of dominant political clans in 2028 by limiting their ability to field multiple relatives for various positions.

“It will not automatically dismantle dominant clans, but it can limit their ability to field several relatives at once across national and local positions,” he said.

Mr. Tapia said political dynasties maintain power not only through name recall but also through their control of local political structures, including governorships, mayoralties, congressional seats and party machinery.

He warned, however, that political families could still preserve influence through “substitutes, allies, in-laws or proxies” if broader reforms are not pursued alongside the bill.

Eric Daniel C. de Torres, a political science professor at the University of the East, said lawmakers should first clearly define how political dynasties would be regulated under the proposal.

He said unclear definitions could produce unintended political outcomes in the 2028 elections.

“It could either enhance or possibly limit dynasties, but certainly a new dynamic could occur,” he said via Facebook Messenger.

Mr. de Torres also cited the possibility of political clans expanding influence through party-list groups or through what he described as “horizontal movement,” in which dynasties extend political reach through intermarriages or alliances in other regions.

Despite the measure’s approval in the House, Mr. de Torres said he is not optimistic it would pass during the 20^th Congress because lawmakers might struggle to reconcile the House and Senate versions.

“Realistically, the House of Representatives can transmit it to the Senate, but the bottleneck is in being able to harmonize both versions,” he said.

He added that other national issues, including the impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, could sideline discussions on the proposal.

Both analysts said the measure could help reduce the concentration of political power but would not resolve deeper structural weaknesses in the country’s political system.

“Dynasties are not only legal problems,” Mr. Tapia said. “They are products of weak parties, poverty, patronage, name recall and uneven local development.”

Mr. de Torres proposed complementary reforms, including strengthening political parties, introducing state funding for parties, adopting proportional representation and regionalizing Senate elections.