Data Tells Different Stories for Bitcoin (BTC) in the Short and Long Term! Is There a Bottoming Signal? Fidelity Explains!

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), recently fell below $60,000 and remains at a critical juncture.

Although the price briefly rose above $64,000, it has since fallen back to around $62,000, and Fidelity has released a report analyzing the current situation.

Fidelity Digital Assets stated in its latest analysis that short-term and long-term indicators differ for Bitcoin.

According to Fidelity, while short-term signals for Bitcoin are predominantly bearish, long-term indicators suggest that BTC is beginning to generate signals resembling a bottom.

The report stated that BTC has been in a “death cross” situation for 204 days and briefly fell below its 200-week simple moving average (approximately $61,800) on June 5-6.

Analysts noted that sustained breaks below the 200-week moving average have historically coincided with periods of forced selling.

However, Fidelity analysts say that while current short-term data points to selling pressure, long-term metrics indicate a bottom formation.

Accordingly, as BTC approaches the network’s average realized price of approximately $53,600, its MVRV-Z score is approaching zero, indicating that it is trading below its true value.

The MVRV-Z score is currently below its lowest level in February, indicating that assets purchased at higher prices are changing hands at lower prices.

Fidelity also pointed out a difference. While the Fear and Greed Index remains at the ‘Extreme Fear’ level, it stays above its February low. This suggests that even with lower valuations, market sentiment isn’t as bad as it was then.

Analysts concluded that, based on current data, short-term signals indicate a bearish trend, but long-term indicators are beginning to point towards forming a bottom.

Other analysts share similar views. 10x Research analysts also argued that while Bitcoin remains under pressure in the short term, the price is beginning to form a bottom. The company stated that regulated derivatives markets continue to grow, which could lead to higher price levels in the third and fourth quarters of the year.

*This is not investment advice.

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