Viral song boosts odds of Iranian regime collapse to 13.5% by June 30

A satirical song by a London-based Iranian artist celebrating the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader has gone viral. Odds for the regime falling by June 30 rose to 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday.

The song’s spread aligns with reports of regime forces firing on celebratory crowds in Tehran and other cities, escalating domestic instability. This has increased the likelihood of factional power struggles within Iran’s elite. The June 30 market saw a 1-point spike at 7:21 PM as traders reacted.

With 88 days left until resolution, the market reflects heightened uncertainty about Iran’s leadership vacuum. The $195,733 needed to move the odds 5 percentage points suggests significant institutional interest, but the real USDC traded is $59,602/day, which can still be influenced by large orders.

This event indicates acute domestic instability that could disrupt Iran’s theocratic-military elite. The viral song and street violence suggest an increased risk of regime fractures. At 13.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 7.4x return. For traders, this implies believing in sustained unrest or leadership collapse within 88 days.

Watch for actions by the Assembly of Experts or the IRGC, particularly any signs of Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence or unexpected convening of the Assembly, which could further influence the odds toward regime collapse.

Markets Impacted

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