XRP’s rise trapped by overhead supply – Can price regain strength?

XRP’s cost-basis overhang caps recovery

This persistent imbalance becomes clearer when viewed through cost-basis positioning, which shows where that pressure is actually coming from.

As XRP’s price dropped from above $2.5 toward the $1.2–$1.3 range, large supply clusters remained concentrated between $1.9 and $2.2.

When price attempted to recover into this zone, holders from the 2024–2025 inflow period approached breakeven, which drove steady sell-side pressure.

Instead of a single capitulation, the February loss spike extended into continued distribution through March.

At the same time, some demand absorbs supply near lower levels, which prevents deeper breakdowns. This creates a slow rotation dynamic, where recovery stays capped, yet structure gradually strengthens as weaker hands exit.

Altcoin bottoms shift to slow absorption cycles

This resistance around cost-basis levels does more than cap XRP; it begins to redefine how altcoin bottoms take shape. While price holds below the $1.43 realized level, recovery attempts repeatedly stall near overhead supply.

At the same time, about 69% of supply sits in wallets under one year, with 36.9% concentrated in the 6–12 month band. These cohorts remain sensitive to price swings, so each rally invites exit-driven selling as holders approach breakeven.

Meanwhile, roughly 56% of XRP’s supply stays underwater, keeping pressure active but not extreme. This creates a slow rotation, where weak hands exit and stronger hands absorb.

As this unfolds, recoveries stretch out, although the same process gradually builds a more stable base.

Final Summary

• $20–$110 million in daily realized losses and a 56% underwater supply sustain XRP’s sell pressure near the $1.43 cost basis.
• Supply clusters at $1.9–$2.2 and 69% held short-term, extending bottom formation timelines.