The US-Iran War has entered a new phase as both sides reject current peace terms and move closer to direct escalation. President Donald Trump has issued a firm deadline tied to Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran has dismissed proposals it views as insufficient.
As negotiations stall, military activity has heightened, including reported U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, which processes about 90% of the country’s oil. As a result, with only hours remaining before the deadline, officials and analysts point to limited military action as the most likely next step, while uncertainty continues to shape global expectations.
US-Iran War Moves Closer to Air Strikes as Ceasefire Odds Fade
Bloomberg Economics outlines four possible outcomes as the US-Iran War reaches a high level. First, a ceasefire remains unlikely, as both sides remain far apart on key conditions. Meanwhile, a delay is still possible, although Trump has signaled reluctance to extend deadlines again.
However, Bloomberg analysts identify air strikes as the most probable scenario. These could range from limited operations to broader attacks. At the same time, a major escalation involving ground forces or strategic sites carries a lower probability due to higher risks.
In addition, Trump has issued warnings. He stated that U.S. forces could strike Iran’s infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, within hours. Despite these warnings, Trump also said the administration does not want that outcome. He acknowledged that rebuilding efforts would follow any large-scale destruction.
Will Trump Take Another U-Turn?
The US-Iran War now hinges on a narrow diplomatic window. Trump has tied his ultimatum directly to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that failure to comply would trigger immediate action.
However, Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire and presented its own conditions. U.S. officials described those demands as “maximalist.” with no breakthrough emerging.
At the same time, Trump has pointed out U.S. military capability. He stated that Iran could be “taken out” in one night. However, he also highlighted proactive limits. For instance, he noted that even minimal disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could impact global shipping routes. But, given the recent delays to the deadlines, it still remains likely that Trump might delay this again if there is a hope for a ceasefire.
Market Signals Point to Prolonged US-Iran War
Prediction market data shows expectations shifting toward a longer US-Iran War timeline. In the near term, resolution probabilities remain low. April 7 stands at 1%, while April 15 is priced at 9%.
Source: PolymarketIn contrast, later dates show higher assurance. May 15 carries a 33% probability, while June 30 rises to 61%. Notably, the highest probability appears at December 31, reaching 84%.
US based Billionaire real estate investor Grant Cordone has made a bold prediction that President Trump will announce tomorrow, “We have a deal”. With only 12 hours remaining in the official deadline for Iran to accept ceasefire, analysts are now weighing the possibility of a major escalation.
https://x.com/GrantCardone/status/2040943344876925144
Source: https://coingape.com/what-happens-next-in-iran-us-conflict-as-both-nations-reject-peace-plan/
