Bitcoin (BTC) Price: US-Iran Ceasefire Sends BTC Above $72K Before Iran Threatens Withdrawal

TLDR

• Bitcoin rallied 6% to above $72,000 after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire deal
• A $280 million liquidation event hit Bitcoin bears during the rally
• Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) with $34 million in inflows on day one
• Iran threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue, sending BTC back below $71,000
• Bitcoin derivatives show no strong bullish momentum, with bears still holding short positions

Bitcoin surged past $72,000 on Tuesday after the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire deal. The move triggered a 6% rally in under four hours, catching many traders off guard.

The rally forced $280 million in liquidations of bearish leveraged Bitcoin futures positions. While that sounds large, it is relatively minor compared to the total $42 billion in open Bitcoin futures positions.

Bitcoin’s price move closely tracked the S&P 500 futures, suggesting the rally was largely driven by macro sentiment rather than crypto-specific factors. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz played a key role in market optimism.

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s nuclear program would be deactivated in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief. However, Vice President JD Vance described the agreement as a “fragile truce,” which kept some traders cautious.

Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Caution

Despite the price spike, Bitcoin futures data showed little change in trader positioning. The annualized futures premium stayed at 3%, below the neutral 4% threshold it has held since late January.

Demand for put options, which protect against price drops, continued to outpace call options. This suggests traders are still leaning defensive rather than bullish.

Bitcoin futures open interest rose just 2.5% to 593,930 BTC on Wednesday. That small increase points to limited new buying pressure entering the market.

Regulatory headwinds are also weighing on sentiment. The latest draft of the PARITY Act dropped tax exemptions for small Bitcoin payments and deferred capital gains for mining. David Sacks also stepped down from his role as White House crypto czar on March 26.

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Debuts

Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT, on Wednesday. The fund pulled in roughly $34 million in inflows and saw over 1.6 million shares traded on its first day.

MSBT charges a 0.14% expense ratio, making it the lowest-cost spot Bitcoin ETF currently available. The fund tracks the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark 4 PM New York Settlement Rate.

Morgan Stanley’s wealth management network, which oversees trillions in client assets, gives MSBT a distribution advantage. Analysts expect it to compete with BlackRock’s IBIT, which currently holds over $53 billion in assets.

Meanwhile, Iran threatened to pull out of the ceasefire if Israel continues strikes on Lebanon. Iran also halted oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following what it called ceasefire violations.

Bitcoin dropped from its $72,000 high back to around $70,700 following those reports. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed US and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, for further talks.

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