OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights Australian Dollar (AUD) as the preferred G10 expression of de-escalation and pro-growth after the US-Iran ceasefire. They note that high-beta energy importers like Swedish Krona (SEK) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) led the snapback, but AUD stands out as a pro-cyclical currency relatively resilient to energy shocks and potentially supported by firmer industrial metals prices if global growth improves.
Pro‑cyclical play with growth leverage
“In G10 FX, high-beta energy importers such as SEK and NZD led the snapback after being the main underperformers during the conflict.”
“Our preferred relief trade remains AUD.”
“It is not only a pro-cyclical currency that is relatively resilient to energy shocks, but it could also benefit from firmer industrial metals prices if further de-escalation lifts global growth as the energy shock fades.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-preferred-g10-relief-trade-on-de-escalation-ocbc-202604090946
