Crypto markets predict 61% chance U.S. Clarity Act passes in 2026

The chances that the Clarity Act reaches President Donald Trump’s desk before the end of 2026 have rebounded on April 9.

As of press time, the odds that the Clarity Act – a proposed law in the United States to legalize the crypto industry – passes the U.S. Senate and is signed into law in 2026 stood at 61%, according to data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform. During the past 24 hours, the likelihood that the Digital Asset Market Structure bill gets enacted before the end of this year surged by 10.91%, signaling rising traders’ conviction.

Year-to-date (YTD), the probability that this bill could be signed into law in 2026 has oscillated between a peak of 82% and 39%.

Why are traders pricing a 61% chance of Clarity Act passage in 2026?

Crypto users are forecasting a 61% chance that President Trump could enact the Clarity Act in 2026, given the current regulatory alignment that was not available during prior federal administrations. Furthermore, financial regulators in the United States, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have urged the Senate to follow the House of Representatives in fast-tracking this bill.

Bessent’s stance was echoed by several top leaders, including David Sachs, the White House A.I and crypto czar, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mike Selig, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis.

With the 2026 midterm elections scheduled for early November, the current administration is pressing to pass the Clarity Act to consolidate support among crypto-aligned voters.  Additionally, the implementation of the Genius Act – a U.S. law focused on legalizing stablecoins – heavily depends on the Clarity Act getting enacted soon. As a result, prediction traders are more convinced the bill could pass key handles by December 31.