PHL preference for China up; US still top ally

By Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel

THE Philippines’ preference for China improved in 2026, although the country remains the least likely among Southeast Asian nations to align with Beijing on foreign policy, reflecting persistent security concerns despite shifting regional sentiment, a survey showed.

The Philippines recorded a 23.2% preference for China in 2026, up from 13.6% a year earlier, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Despite the increase, the country ranked last in preference for China among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the think tank said, citing the results of its Jan. 5 to Feb. 20 survey.

“Countries with deep economic interdependence with China appear more inclined toward Beijing, whereas traditional security partners of the US, particularly the Philippines, remain firmly aligned with Washington,” it said.

“The escalation of tensions over the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea is, without a doubt, the primary determinant of how we view Beijing,” Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a lecturer at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde School of Diplomacy and Governance, told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger chat on Sunday.

Even if perceptions of China have improved, maritime friction continues to shape Philippine attitudes.

The decline in US preference is also tied to economic issues, particularly the refusal to lower tariffs despite the longstanding alliance, Mr. Cortez added.

The Philippines maintained the strongest preference for the US at 76.8%, although this was lower than 86.4% in 2025. The report said traditional US security partners continue to favor Washington even as economic ties across the region tilt toward Beijing.

Regional sentiment shifted in favor of China in 2026, reversing last year’s results. Overall ASEAN preference placed China ahead at 52% compared with 48% for the US, reflecting Beijing’s expanding economic footprint and infrastructure engagement in the region.

Indonesia posted the highest preference for China at 80.1%, followed by Malaysia at 68% and Singapore at 66.3%. Timor-Leste registered 58.2%, Thailand 55%, Brunei 53.5%, Laos 49.7%, Vietnam 40.8%, Cambodia 39% and Myanmar 38.6%. The Philippines ranked lowest despite its year-on-year increase.

The survey did not cover the joint US and Israeli strike against Iran on Feb. 28, which analysts say could further influence regional threat assessments and alliance calculations.

Analysts said the Philippine shift reflects competing pressures from security and trade. Maritime disputes with China continue to weigh heavily on public and elite opinion, while economic considerations such as tariffs and market access influence views of the US.

Francis M. Esteban, a faculty member at Far Eastern University’s Department of International Studies, said the Philippines’ historical defense ties with the US remain the central driver of preference.

Defense cooperation and historical affinity explain why the Philippines remains firmly aligned with the US, Mr. Esteban told BusinessWorld. However, he said sentiment toward Washington has softened due to leadership concerns.

“[Donald J.] Trump as president is a top concern for many Southeast Asian leaders,” he said via Messenger, citing survey findings that geopolitical uncertainty linked to US leadership has affected regional confidence.

Mr. Cortez also pointed to security risks tied to alliance commitments. Hosting US military installations raises exposure in regional conflicts, he said, adding that this dynamic complicates Philippine preferences even as reliance on the US security umbrella persists.