NEAR Protocol Price Analysis: Why $1.39 Could Be a Launchpad Toward $5 and Beyond

TLDR:

• NEAR Protocol currently trades at a 28x P/S ratio, far below Ethereum’s 194x and Solana’s 40x multiples.
• The NEAR Intents fee buyback mechanism, live since February 2025, uses 100% of fees to buy NEAR directly.
• Daily Intents volume must reach $177M for NEAR to turn net deflationary, versus the current $77M average.
• A 40x P/S applied to projected fees of $150–180M annually puts NEAR’s price target between $4.65 and $5.60.

NEAR Protocol is drawing renewed attention from crypto analysts as its current price of $1.39 appears disconnected from its underlying fundamentals.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently outlined a detailed case for why the asset could reach $3–5 in the coming months.

The analysis covers token supply dynamics, staking rates, revenue generation, and the growing volume on NEAR Intents — a fee-buyback mechanism activated in February 2025.

Token Supply and Revenue Support a Repricing Case

NEAR Protocol has seen meaningful changes to its tokenomics following 2025 protocol updates. The network now issues approximately 32 million tokens annually at a 2.5% inflation rate.

That marks a 50% reduction from previous issuance levels. Combined with 99% of tokens already in circulation, there is minimal sell pressure from remaining unlocks.

Around 45.5% of the total supply is currently staked, further tightening available supply on the open market. On the revenue side, NEAR generates an estimated $50–60 million annually.

This figure is derived from the recent 90-day fee run rate. The base-layer gas fee model operates on a 70/30 split, where 70% of fees are permanently burned.

Van de Poppe noted in his post: “NEAR is about to break upwards to $3–4 and it fully deserves it. This is a prime example of an asset severely underpriced in current market conditions.”

Compared to Ethereum’s price-to-sales ratio of 194x and Solana’s 40x, NEAR currently trades at an Intents-adjusted P/S of just 28x. That gap points to a potential repricing as platform activity increases and volume metrics improve over time.

NEAR Intents Volume Drives the Deflationary Threshold Thesis

NEAR Intents forms the core of the protocol’s updated economic model. Launched in February 2025, it directs 100% of Intents fees toward direct NEAR token purchases. For the protocol to become net deflationary, daily Intents volume must reach approximately $177 million.

The current 90-day average sits at $77 million per day. That means volume needs to roughly double to cross the deflationary threshold.

Over the past 30 days, Intents recorded $2.1 billion in volume, which annualizes to approximately $25 billion. That trajectory has accelerated since the mechanism went live.

Van de Poppe applied a conservative 50–100% compound annual growth rate to project future performance. Under that model, daily volume could reach $100–150 million by end of 2026. By 2027, the figure could exceed $200–300 million, pushing NEAR firmly into net deflationary territory.

Applying a 40x P/S ratio to projected annual fees of $150–180 million places NEAR’s price target at $4.65–$5.60. At a higher growth scenario, the analyst sees a $7–10 valuation as achievable within 12 months, based strictly on current volume momentum and fee metrics.

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