Netflix (NFLX) Stock: What to Expect From Earnings on Thursday

TLDR

• Netflix reports Q1 2026 earnings after market close on April 16
• Wall Street expects EPS of $0.79, up 15% year-over-year
• Revenue forecast sits at $12.18 billion, a 15.5% rise year-over-year
• NFLX stock is up ~10% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500
• Options traders are pricing in a 6.54% move in either direction post-earnings

Netflix is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results after the bell on Thursday, April 16. The company has had a solid start to the year, with its stock up around 10% year-to-date while the broader market has had a rougher ride.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

A big part of that gain came after Netflix walked away from a potential deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery assets — a move markets clearly welcomed. Netflix also pocketed a $2.8 billion breakup fee in the process.

Analysts are expecting EPS of $0.79 for Q1, a 15% jump from the same period last year. Revenue is forecast to come in at $12.18 billion, up 15.5% year-over-year. Both figures line up with guidance Netflix gave when it released Q4 2025 results.

It’s worth noting that Netflix raised prices across most of its streaming plans late last month. Those hikes won’t fully show up in Q1 numbers, though — existing subscribers will only reflect the new prices when their plans renew. The company last raised prices in January 2025, and that move didn’t trigger much churn.

Netflix added 23 million subscribers in 2025. That’s below the record growth seen in 2023 and 2024, which was driven by the password-sharing crackdown and the launch of the ad-supported tier. Those two tailwinds have mostly run their course, though the ad-supported tier hasn’t launched in several markets yet.

Ad Business Picking Up Steam

Netflix’s advertising business continues to grow fast. Ad revenue rose more than 2.5 times to $1.5 billion in 2025. The company expects that figure to roughly double again in 2026 as more users opt for the cheaper, ad-supported plan.

Even so, ad revenue is expected to make up less than 6% of total revenue this year. It’s still a small slice of the pie, but it’s growing in the triple digits.

Netflix also expects margins to keep expanding. The company plans to keep content spending growth below revenue growth, which gives it solid operating leverage going into the back half of the year.

Analyst Sentiment Heading In

Wall Street has been getting more bullish ahead of the print. Goldman Sachs upgraded NFLX from “Neutral” to “Buy” earlier this month, raising its target from $100 to $120. Wedbush, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, and Rosenblatt have also lifted their price targets.

Evercore’s Mark Mahaney kept his Buy rating with a $115 target, expecting results roughly in line with estimates. Wedbush’s Alicia Reese raised her target to $118 from $115, pointing to global ad growth and the benefit of recent price hikes.

Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Kraft held his Hold rating but nudged his target up to $100 from $98. He flagged that growth could slow in coming years and that the stock may already price in much of the near-term upside.

Across 40 analysts covering the stock, 30 have a Buy and 10 have a Hold. The average price target is $115.09, implying about 12% upside from current levels.

Options traders are bracing for movement. The at-the-money straddle puts the expected post-earnings move at 6.54% in either direction.

Netflix trades at a forward P/E of around 32 times, dropping to roughly 27 times on 2027 estimates.

The post Netflix (NFLX) Stock: What to Expect From Earnings on Thursday appeared first on CoinCentral.