Bitcoin Tests Key ETF Cost Basis: But Bears Aren’t Done Yet

Bitcoin climbed over 5% over the past 24 hours to nearly $75,000, alongside a broader rally. The crypto asset is also trading above a crucial structural level that could redefine market positioning.

But pressure beneath the surface is still building quietly.

Break-Even Zone

According to the latest report by Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin is currently testing a critical structural level as its price converges with the ETF Cost Basis at $74,232, which represents the average acquisition price of BTC held by US-based exchange-traded funds.

After spending several weeks below this range, the market has now brought the ETF cohort back to break-even. This level now stands as the most important threshold for evaluating the condition of ETF holders.

A steady move above $74,232 would indicate that this segment has transitioned out of an unrealized loss position into neutrality, which will be the first signal of potential stabilization. However, the broader market structure remains under pressure due to the positioning of short-term holders (STHs), whose cost basis is significantly higher at approximately $83,734. They are still roughly $9,000 below their cost basis, which continues to weigh on price during upward moves.

On the other hand, long-term holders (LTHs), with a cost basis near $43,018, remain firmly in profit and are not contributing to immediate downside pressure. As a result, the current configuration is indicative of a divided market structure where stability in one cohort does not yet translate into overall strength.

The ETF segment sits at equilibrium, but the unresolved tension in the STH cohort continues to weigh on price action. Adler stated that this phase should not be interpreted as a confirmed reversal, but rather as a test of “resilience.” The market is effectively attempting to solve its first structural challenge by reclaiming the ETF Cost Basis, but even if successful, a more significant resistance layer remains at the STH Cost Basis.

Therefore, holding above $74,232 would serve as the initial confirmation of stabilization, while a rejection and move back below this level would indicate that the market structure remains weak and susceptible to further downside pressure.

Liquidation Risk Cluster

There are also dense liquidation zones that could influence short-term movement. An analyst at Bitunix, for one, explained that BTC has now entered a confluence zone between prior supply and dense liquidation clusters, reflecting cautious, probing absorption under macro uncertainty.

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