Bitwise executive projects bitcoin market cap could eclipse gold

Bitcoin’s potential to challenge the dominance of traditional assets is growing as its utility expands from a digital version of gold to a functional tool for international trade, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

According to a Tuesday post from Hougan, Bitcoin’s total addressable market could eventually eclipse the $34 trillion gold market if it succeeds in functioning as both a global currency and a primary store of value.

This perspective gained traction following reports of Iran’s proposal to use Bitcoin for transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that highlights the asset’s utility in bypassing traditional financial infrastructure.

“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, Bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” Hougan said, noting that these geopolitical developments indicate the asset’s reach extends far beyond being a mere commodity.

Hougan had previously estimated that Bitcoin could reach a price of $1 million per coin if it captured roughly 17% of the store-of-value market over the next decade. However, the current shift toward using the asset for cross-border payments and sovereign trade may force a significant upward revision of those price targets.

“If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value, like gold, and an actual currency, like the dollar, we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan said.

While Bitcoin currently holds a market capitalization of approximately $1.4 trillion—trading near $74,500—it remains a fraction of the gold market’s $33.7 trillion valuation. Despite this gap, practical adoption is accelerating in regions facing economic instability. 

In nations like Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela, citizens are increasingly turning to Bitcoin to protect their savings from rapid currency devaluation and persistent inflation.

The trend is supported by data from a Coinbase survey conducted in January, which found that 87% of Argentinians view blockchain technology as a path toward financial independence. 

This grassroots adoption is being mirrored at the institutional level, with private and public corporations now holding more than 1.5 million Bitcoin, worth roughly $116 billion, on their balance sheets.

Merchant integration is also steadily climbing. Data from BTC Map, cited by academic publisher Springer Nature, identifies roughly 11,000 vendors worldwide that now accept the digital asset for daily transactions, signaling its slow but consistent transition into a mainstream payment method.