Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock: What Analysts Expect From Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• TSMC reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 16, before the opening bell.
• Wall Street expects EPS of $3.30, up over 50% year-over-year, on revenue of $35.35 billion.
• TSMC already confirmed Q1 revenue of $35.76 billion, up 35% YoY — beating analyst forecasts.
• Options traders are pricing in a ~5% move in either direction following the print.
• Aletheia Capital set a new street-high price target of $600, while all seven tracked analysts rate it a Buy.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is set to post its Q1 2026 earnings on Thursday, April 16, before markets open. The report is one of the most watched in the chip sector, given TSMC’s role as the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

The company already tipped its hand on revenue. On Friday, TSMC reported Q1 sales of 1.13 trillion New Taiwan Dollars — roughly $35.76 billion — a 35% jump from a year ago and ahead of analyst forecasts. That number set a positive tone heading into the full earnings release.

Wall Street is expecting EPS of $3.30, which would be more than 50% above Q1 2025 levels. Revenue consensus sits at $35.35 billion, though the pre-reported sales figure has already cleared that bar.

Analyst Targets Rise Ahead of Print

Aletheia Capital analyst Stefan Chang issued a new street-high price target of $600, raised from $500, while maintaining a Buy rating. Chang pointed to TSMC’s capacity expansion plans and faster rollout of advanced chip packaging technologies. He expects most new capacity to come online in 2027 and 2028, and sees near-term sequential revenue growth of 8% to 10%.

Bank of America analyst Haas Liu also raised his target, moving to NT$2,530 from NT$2,360, keeping a Buy rating. Liu cited strong demand for high-performance computing and AI chips, and expects Q2 sales to grow 7% to 9% sequentially.

All seven analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha recommend buying the stock. TSM’s average price target of $423.50 implies roughly 14.6% upside from current levels.

TSM stock is up more than 20% year-to-date and has gained over 137% in the past 12 months.

Options Market Prices In a ~5% Swing

Options pricing suggests traders expect TSMC stock to move roughly 4.83% to 5% in either direction after the earnings release. Based on Monday’s close, that puts the upside target near $386 — close to its February highs — and the downside range around $353.

Wedbush analysts noted Friday that the strong Q1 sales figures point to continued AI demand momentum. They also flagged the numbers as a potential positive read-through for TSMC’s two biggest customers, Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL).

The company’s first-quarter EPS is expected at 20.73 New Taiwan Dollars, or approximately 65 cents per share.

TSMC’s TipRanks consensus stands at Strong Buy, based on six Buy ratings and one Hold over the last three months.

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