Conservative strategist warns it's 'increasingly likely' Dems 'flip the Senate'

Late Wednesday morning, April 15, CNN reported that Texas State Rep. James Talarico — the Democratic nominee in Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race — had raised "more than $27 million" in a "first-quarter fundraising haul" for his Senate campaign. In the general election, Talarico (a Presbyterian seminarian who isn't shy about discussing his faith) will be up against either incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) or far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Conservative GOP consultant/strategist Mark McKinnon, whose past clients included former President George W. Bush and the late Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona), discussed Talarico's fundraising numbers during an April 15 appearance on MS NOW. And he stressed that the Talarico campaign is a bad sign for Republicans considering how much of a red state Texas is.

McKinnon told MS NOW host Chris Jansing, "Well, this is an astonishing number, Chris. Because not only is it a record for any Senate candidate, but think about this: This is a record for somebody running as a Democrat in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 35 years. So, it says a number of things. One, I think a lot is happening for Democrats across the country. I mean, the wind is right now at their backs."

The GOP consultant/strategist continued, "But it also says something about James Talarico. This guy is really special. He is something different, really unique…. These are the kind of fundraising numbers you just don't see anywhere."

McKinnon isn't the only conservative who is bullish on Talarico. Conservative Washington Post columnist George Will said that while Cornyn would be hard to beat in a general election, he thinks that seat is in play for Democrats if Paxton is the nominee. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), a Cornyn supporter, is also sounding the alarm about that race.

Although Democratic strategists are feeling increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the U.S. House of Representatives, they know that the Senate is an uphill climb for them — as they would need to flip at least four GOP-help seats to obtain a majority in Congress' upper chamber. But McKinnon believes that Democrats are improving their chances of retaking the Senate in November.

Jansing noted some other quarterly fundraising numbers for Democratic U.S. Senate candidates, including $14 million for incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia, $13.8 million for former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and $12.5 million for former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

McKinnon told Jansing, "I've spent a lot of time in Texas. I worked for the last Democrat who won statewide, and that was (the late Gov.) Ann Richards. And that was 35 years ago. I also worked for George Bush as a Republican. So, I've seen what's happened there. And I'm always the one pushing back…. every time friends call and say, 'Oh, Texas, turning blue'…. But I think there may be something going on here in Texas…. A big measurement of what's going to happen in the fall is to measure enthusiasm…. We were all talking about flipping the House, but now, we're all talking about flipping the Senate — which I think is increasingly likely as you look at these kind of numbers."

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