Airbus (AIR) Stock: Q1 2026 Revenues Expected to Fall 8% on Delivery Drop

TLDR

• Airbus Q1 2026 revenues expected at €12.4 billion, down 8% year-on-year.
• Commercial aircraft deliveries projected to fall to 114 from 136 a year ago, a drop of about 16%.
• Panel defects and repair bottlenecks are suspected to be behind the delivery backlog.
• Defence & Space and Helicopters divisions are expected to hold steady with moderate revenue growth.
• Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies have hold ratings, with price targets of €230 and €190 respectively.

Airbus is heading into its Q1 2026 earnings report with a lot of baggage. Analysts are forecasting a rough quarter, driven by a sharp drop in aircraft deliveries and ongoing supply chain headaches.

Airbus SE, AIR.DE

Revenues for the quarter are expected to come in at €12.4 billion, down 8% from the same period last year, according to Morgan Stanley. Adjusted EBIT is forecast at just €311 million, with margins thinning to 2.5%.

The commercial aircraft division — Airbus‘ bread and butter — is set to take the hardest hit. Analysts expect around 114 deliveries in Q1, compared to 136 a year ago. That’s a 16% decline and it shows.

Divisional revenues are expected to drop by 13%, with operating profit slumping to €75 million. The causes include lower production volumes, an unfavorable aircraft mix, and higher R&D spending.

The Delivery Backlog Problem

There’s a telling disconnect in the numbers. While deliveries are down nearly 20% year-to-date, flight activity has only dipped modestly. That suggests aircraft are being built — they’re just not being handed over.

Analysts point to panel defects and repair bottlenecks as the likely culprit. Completed planes may be sitting on the tarmac waiting for fixes before they can be delivered to customers.

If those issues get resolved, the backlog could actually support a delivery rebound later in the year. That’s a silver lining, but it depends on execution.

Free cash flow is also expected to be weaker than the typical seasonal outflow. Inventory is piling up as Airbus preps for future growth, and disruption from panel inspections isn’t helping.

The Spirit integration — following Airbus’ acquisition of parts of Spirit AeroSystems — appears to have had a limited impact so far, though it adds complexity to an already strained operational picture.

Analysts Stay Cautious

Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie maintained a Hold rating, setting a price target of €190. The reasoning: near-term pressures on cash generation and margins make the risk-reward feel balanced rather than compelling.

Morgan Stanley also kept its Hold stance, though with a notably more optimistic price target of €230, citing confidence in a recovery once supply chain conditions improve.

Exane BNP Paribas joined the cautious camp on April 13, initiating coverage with a Hold rating and a €190 price target as well.

Not everything is struggling. Airbus’ Defence & Space division is forecast to grow revenues by 8% in Q1, while Helicopters could see a 4% increase — both maintaining stable margins.

The long-term picture remains solid. Airbus holds a backlog of around 8,800 aircraft, and global aviation demand hasn’t cooled. The near-term pain is real, but the order book is a reminder of just how busy things could get once the operational issues clear.

As of mid-April, Airbus stock (AIR) was up around 1% on the day.

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