Robinhood (HOOD) Stock: Bernstein Sees 50% Upside Ahead of Q1 Earnings

TLDR

• Robinhood stock has rebounded ~33% from late-March lows but remains down 23% year-to-date
• Bernstein reiterates Outperform rating with a $130 price target, implying ~50% upside
• Analyst Gautam Chhugani believes a weak Q1 is already priced in and expects the market to look forward
• Crypto revenue forecast for 2026 sits 31% above consensus; prediction markets 30% above consensus
• Prediction market revenue projected to surge 286% year-over-year to ~$586 million in 2026

Robinhood has had a rough ride. The stock is down 53% from its 52-week high of $153.86 and off 23% for the year. Lower trading volumes, reduced crypto revenue, and a risk-off macro environment have all played a part.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

But Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani isn’t backing down.

He reiterated an Outperform rating and a $130 price target on HOOD ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings report, due April 28. At the current price of around $71.67, that target implies roughly 50% upside.

Chhugani’s core argument is simple: the weak Q1 print is already baked into the stock price, and the market will focus on what’s ahead.

Crypto Recovery Is the Key Catalyst

Chhugani believes Bitcoin has already bottomed and expects a meaningful crypto rebound to kick off from Q2 onwards.

He forecasts Robinhood’s crypto revenues rising 23% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in 2026. That would account for roughly 15% of total revenue growth. A broader crypto price recovery in the second half should boost retail engagement and improve take rates.

Bitstamp, acquired by Robinhood for $200 million last June, gets a specific callout. Chhugani describes it as a “key differentiator,” noting it has ramped quickly in institutional activity and now contributes around 60% of total crypto volumes.

Bernstein’s 2026 crypto revenue estimate sits 31% above Wall Street consensus. For 2027, they’re 18% above consensus on revenue and 25% above on EPS.

Prediction Markets: The Biggest Growth Driver

Chhugani sees prediction markets as the largest incremental growth driver for Robinhood in 2026.

Revenue in this segment is expected to jump from roughly $150 million in 2025 to around $586 million in 2026 — that’s 286% year-over-year growth. It would represent about 17% of transaction-based revenues and contribute around 30% of total revenue growth.

The analyst also points to a “catalyst-rich” calendar: the U.S. is hosting the Football World Cup in summer 2026, and the midterm elections later in the year should stir political event trading.

On the broader picture, Robinhood still represents just 4% of total broking revenue TAM. Its retail trading revenue share grew from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, helped by expansion into crypto and prediction markets.

Bernstein’s 2026 revenue estimate is 9% above consensus, with EPS 16% higher. For 2027, revenue is 18% above consensus and EPS 25% ahead.

Not everyone is as bullish. Truist lowered its price target to $100 from $120, citing weaker transaction revenue. Mizuho trimmed its target to $105 from $110, pointing to softer net interest income. Citizens cut its target to $155 from $180 after reducing Q1 2026 EBITDA estimates to $573.1 million, below consensus.

Of 17 analysts tracked, 14 rate HOOD a Buy and 3 a Hold, giving it a Strong Buy consensus. The average price target is $104.56, implying around 20% upside from current levels.

Q1 earnings are due April 28.

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