American Express (AXP) Stock: Should You Buy Before or After Q1 Earnings?

Key Takeaways

• American Express delivers Q1 earnings April 23, with analysts projecting approximately 9.6% YoY increases in both earnings per share and revenue
• Billed business (cardholder spending) expanded 8% YoY in Q4 2025, though growth momentum has plateaued after earlier acceleration
• Credit metrics show resilience — charge-offs increased modestly while reserve additions are decelerating
• Full-year 2026 outlook projects 9–10% revenue expansion and EPS ranging from $17.30 to $17.90, matching Street expectations
• Analyst consensus leans Moderate Buy, with a mean price target of $352.60 representing roughly 6.3% potential gain

American Express (AXP) approaches its April 23 Q1 2026 earnings announcement with fundamentals that look sturdy — though perhaps too sturdy for investors seeking growth.

American Express Company, AXP

The company’s operational health looks sound. Consumer spending patterns remain resilient. Credit portfolios show strength. Yet for a stock commanding a premium valuation, simply being “sound” may not justify current pricing.

Street expectations call for roughly 9.6% year-over-year expansion in both earnings per share and top-line revenue. That represents consistency rather than acceleration.

The critical metric under scrutiny is billed business — the measure of cardholder spending activity — which Wall Street monitors intensely for AXP. This figure registered 8% YoY growth in Q4 2025, consistent with full-year FY25 performance. However, after climbing from 6% in Q1 2025 to 7% in Q2, the growth rate has stalled.

This flattening trajectory suggests a business entering mature, predictable growth mode — a characterization that conflicts with the stock’s 21.4x trailing earnings valuation.

Credit Portfolio Remains Resilient

The credit picture presents no immediate concerns. Charge-offs totaled $1.27 billion in Q4, rising from $1.13 billion year-over-year, though the sequential climb remained measured.

Provision expenses increased to $1.41 billion versus $1.28 billion in Q3. Notably, the reserve build totaled only $141 million — significantly below the $222 million recorded in Q2 2025. This signals appropriate provisioning rather than emerging stress.

Net interest income jumped 12% YoY, loan balances expanded 7%, and net interest margins widened. These indicators point to profitable, disciplined credit expansion. The interpretation: normalization rather than degradation.

Cramer’s Perspective on Timing

Jim Cramer recently addressed AXP on Mad Money, offering strategic advice for prospective buyers ahead of the earnings release.

Bank of America’s Q1 results from April 15 provide valuable context for consumer spending trends. Their card spending rose 6% YoY, driven by travel, services, and retail categories. Given Amex’s wealthier customer base, comparable or superior performance seems probable — establishing high single-digit billed business growth as the baseline Q1 expectation.

AXP currently trades around 18.5x forward earnings, approximately 20% below its December valuation peak. This multiple compression creates somewhat lower hurdles for upward movement.

The FY26 guidance framework anticipates 9–10% revenue growth alongside EPS of $17.30–$17.90 — representing roughly 14% YoY earnings growth. Analysts have largely maintained their models following this guidance release.

Among the most recent 17 analyst assessments, seven recommend Buy, nine suggest Hold, and one advises Sell. The consensus price target stands at $352.60, suggesting approximately 6.3% upside from present trading levels.

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