Trump’s own aides blow holes in his latest economic claim

Paul Krugman and other major economists are warning that gas won't be the only thing that becomes more expensive because of U.S. President Donald Trump's war with Iran. A wide range of goods, according to Krugman, will become more expensive.

Krugman told MS NOW's Ari Melber that economically, "It's going to get really, really ugly if this goes on for an extended period."

Trump, however, is claiming that gas prices will "come roaring down" when the Iran war ends. But MS NOW's Akayla Gardner, in an article published on April 21, reports that Trump's own aides disagree.

"The problem is that almost no one in a position to know — not his energy secretary, nor the economists tracking the market — thinks it'll happen that fast," Gardner says of gas prices decreasing. "And for a president heading into a critical midterm election, that gap could prove politically costly…. Before the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, the average price of gasoline was $2.98 a gallon, according to AAA, which tracks the national average. It now sits above $4 — a political pain point for the president and Republicans more broadly."

Trump's "timeline" on gas prices, according to Gardner, "has found few supporters inside his own administration — let alone among economists."

"Over the weekend," Gardner reports, "Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN that the average cost of a gallon of gasoline may not dip below $3 until 'later this year' or until 2027. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was somewhat more optimistic, saying consumers could see 'gas with a three in front of it' between June 20 and September 20 — a range that technically encompasses $3.99 a gallon, not far from where prices stand now. Multiple analysts who spoke to MS NOW echoed similarly cautious forecasts."

Peter Earle, economics director at American Institute for Economic Research, notes that there is a "pretty clear negative relationship" between gas prices and "how people feel about the economy."

Earle told MS NOW, "Oil and gasoline rise very quickly, and they come down very slowly…. Gasoline prices matter because they sit right in the crosshairs of economics and psychology. They're visible. They're unavoidable…. We have this affordability issue, so oil, gasoline, is just another thing on top of mortgages, on top of higher food prices and everything else."

University of Southern California (USC) professor Michael Mische told MS NOW that "it all depends on what happens, of course, in the Middle East, and how quickly those oil supplies can be restored going to refineries."

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