Intel (INTC) Stock Surges 78% — But Can Earnings Keep the Party Going?

TLDR

• Intel stock has surged ~78% year to date, trading around $65.83 as of April 21.
• Three major deals — with Apollo, Tesla/SpaceX, and Google — drove much of the rally.
• Intel’s 18A chip process is now showing up in real consumer products, boosting credibility.
• Q1 2026 earnings are due April 23; investors want proof the foundry business is improving.
• Wall Street holds a consensus “Hold” rating with an average price target of $56.41.

Intel has been one of the more surprising stories in the market this year. The stock is up roughly 78% year to date, trading at $65.83 as of Tuesday afternoon, April 21. That compares to a 3.4% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period.

Intel Corporation, INTC

It wasn’t always looking this good. After Q4 earnings on January 22, weak Q1 guidance sent the stock down 17% in a single day, closing at $45.07.

The recovery started in earnest in April, driven by three major strategic deals under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took the helm in March 2025.

On April 1, Intel announced it would repurchase Apollo’s 49% equity stake in a joint venture tied to its Fab 34 facility in Ireland for $14.2 billion. The deal will be funded with existing cash and around $6.5 billion in new debt.

On April 7, Intel confirmed it would join Elon Musk’s Terafab AI chip project alongside SpaceX and Tesla, supplying processors for robotics and data center operations.

Then on April 9, Intel and Google announced a multiyear partnership to build out AI and cloud infrastructure. Google Cloud will use Intel Xeon processors, including the latest Xeon 6 chips, across its instances.

18A Process Moves From Promise to Product

Beyond the deals, the technology story has also shifted. Intel launched its Core Series 3 chips — codenamed Wildcat Lake — last week. These are the first mainstream consumer products built on its 18A manufacturing process.

For a long time, the 18A roadmap felt more like investor wishful thinking than a near-term reality. These chips suggest it’s becoming tangible.

Intel is also deploying PowerVia technology, which moves power delivery to the back of the wafer. That frees up the main chip surface for computing functions and improves both efficiency and heat management.

TSMC is expected to develop something similar eventually, but Intel currently has a window where it can claim a real architectural edge.

Eyes on Q1 Earnings

All of that context makes the April 23 earnings report a high-stakes moment. The stock has run hard, and a decent quarter probably won’t be enough.

What investors want to see is whether Intel Foundry’s losses are narrowing after heavy capital expenditure. Deals with Amazon and Microsoft are in place — the question is whether they’re starting to show up in the numbers.

Intel is currently trading at around 6.3x expected 2026 revenue of approximately $53 billion. That’s not stretched by semiconductor standards, especially given its strategic importance to governments viewing chip supply chains as national security issues.

Wall Street’s consensus is a Hold, based on 7 Buy, 23 Hold, and 4 Sell ratings. The average price target of $56.41 implies roughly 15% downside from current levels.

The ugliest part of the turnaround — the cuts, the losses, the credibility gap — is largely behind Intel. Whether the numbers on April 23 confirm that is the next question.

The post Intel (INTC) Stock Surges 78% — But Can Earnings Keep the Party Going? appeared first on CoinCentral.