Nokia (NOK) Stock Surges to 16-Year Peak Following Strong Q1 Results and Raised AI Forecasts

Key Highlights

• Q1 comparable operating profit climbed 54% year-over-year to €281 million, surpassing analyst forecasts of €250 million
• Company returned to profitability with net income of €87 million versus a €60 million year-ago loss
• Revenue from AI and cloud clients jumped 49%, generating approximately €1 billion in fresh orders
• Addressable market forecast for AI and cloud increased to 27% annual growth from previous 16% projection
• Shares reached their strongest level since April 2010, climbing up to 9% during morning trading

Nokia delivered first-quarter results that substantially exceeded Wall Street projections, triggering a sharp rally in the company’s shares. The telecommunications equipment provider from Finland reported comparable operating profit reaching €281 million, representing a 54% increase from the prior year and comfortably above the €250 million analyst consensus.

The bottom line flipped to a net profit of €87 million compared to a €60 million deficit in the corresponding quarter last year. Operating margin expanded to 6.2% from 4.2% in the year-earlier period.

Shares surged up to 9% during Thursday morning trading in Helsinki, marking the stock’s strongest performance since April 2010.

Nokia Oyj, NOK

Comparable net sales totaled €4.5 billion during the three-month period, aligning closely with market projections and representing a 4% year-over-year increase when adjusted for currency fluctuations.

The AI and cloud segment emerged as the performance leader. Revenue from this division skyrocketed 49% and represented 8% of total group revenue. Fresh orders from AI and cloud clients reached approximately €1 billion throughout the quarter.

Optical Networks, operating within the Network Infrastructure division, delivered exceptional results with 20% organic expansion. The overall Network Infrastructure segment posted 6% organic growth. Mobile Infrastructure advanced 3%.

Company Substantially Raises AI Market Projections

Nokia increased its total addressable market growth projection for AI and cloud operations to a 27% compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2028. This marks a significant upgrade from the 16% rate communicated during a November investor presentation.

The Network Infrastructure TAM growth outlook was upgraded to 12–14% from an earlier 6–8% estimate. Optical and IP network growth projections were revised upward to 18–20%, compared with the previous 10–12% forecast.

CEO Justin Hotard attributed the changes to an AI “supercycle,” noting that demand was intensifying and driving heightened capital allocation toward optical and IP network infrastructure.

The company maintained its full-year comparable operating profit outlook in the €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion range, noting performance was trending moderately above the range’s midpoint.

Conservative Q2 Outlook Tempers Enthusiasm

However, the results weren’t uniformly positive. Nokia’s second-quarter operating profit forecast fell significantly short of analyst expectations.

Management projected Q2 operating profit would represent 12–16% of annual operating profit, translating to a figure approximately 20% below consensus estimates at the midpoint.

Free cash flow also deteriorated, swinging to negative €353 million from positive €629 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Barclays, maintaining an “underweight” rating on Nokia with a €5.20 price target, characterized the quarter as “broadly neutral.” The investment bank highlighted near-term concern regarding the subdued Q2 profit outlook while recognizing Nokia’s expanding AI market presence.

The firm noted that AI RAN trials were progressing as planned but observed “little to get excited about on the mobile side.”

The Q2 revenue outlook did suggest potential upside versus consensus, with management forecasting 5–9% sequential revenue growth.

Nokia’s optical division has functioned as a crucial growth catalyst following its purchase of U.S.-based Infinera, an acquisition that positioned the company among the world’s leading optical transport system manufacturers.

The company verified that AI and cloud orders during the quarter approximated €1 billion.

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