Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock Drops 10% as Grasberg Mine Drags on 2026 Outlook

TLDR

• FCX stock fell nearly 8% in premarket trading Thursday, its biggest single-day drop since September 2025.
• Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $6.23B both beat analyst expectations.
• Copper and gold sales both came in below year-ago levels due to reduced output at Grasberg.
• Full-year 2026 copper guidance cut from 3.4B to 3.1B pounds; gold guidance cut from 800K to 650K ounces.
• The cuts stem from a September 2025 mud rush at Grasberg that killed seven workers and slowed operations.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) posted a solid first quarter on paper. But investors weren’t buying it.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., FCX

The stock dropped nearly 8% in premarket trading Thursday after the mining company slashed its 2026 production outlook for copper and gold. The drop puts FCX on pace for its worst single-day loss since September 2025.

The first quarter actually came in ahead of forecasts. Adjusted earnings hit 57 cents per share, beating the 47-cent analyst estimate. Revenue rose nearly 9% year-over-year to $6.23 billion, clearing Wall Street’s $5.73 billion forecast.

But the headline numbers couldn’t mask what was happening underneath.

Copper sales fell to 657 million pounds from 872 million pounds in the same period last year. Gold sales came in at 121,000 ounces — well below 2025 levels, though higher than the 60,000 ounces Freeport had guided for at the start of the year. Molybdenum was the one bright spot, with sales of 24 million pounds topping both the prior year and internal forecasts.

The drop in copper and gold output traces directly back to Grasberg, Freeport’s massive mine in Indonesia.

Grasberg’s Shadow

In September 2025, a mud rush at the site killed seven workers and forced operations to halt. The mine has been running at reduced rates ever since, and Thursday’s update made clear the recovery is taking longer than expected.

Freeport now expects full-year 2026 copper output of 3.1 billion pounds — down from prior guidance of 3.4 billion pounds. Gold has been cut to 650,000 ounces from 800,000. The company attributed both reductions to a delayed ramp-up at Grasberg, citing needed “modifications to ore loading infrastructure.”

Those are not small revisions. Together, they represent a meaningful step back from what Freeport had been telling investors just months ago.

What Management Said

The company did not give a timeline for when Grasberg would be back to full capacity.

FCX was down more than 10% in early Thursday trading, steeper than the initial premarket move.

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