Daily Market Update: Bitcoin Stalls as Japan Inflation and Iran War Rattle Stocks and Crypto

TLDR

• Bitcoin hovered near $77,800, failing to break above $78,700, as its uptrend from late March stalled
• Japan’s core inflation rose to 1.8% in March, raising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike as soon as June
• Iran deployed more naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of the world’s seaborne oil supply
• US stock futures edged higher after Trump announced a three-week Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension
• Intel jumped 15% after hours on strong earnings, while IBM, Tesla, and ServiceNow fell after their own reports

Bitcoin is struggling to push higher as a mix of geopolitical tension and fresh economic data from Japan weighs on global markets.

Bitcoin traded near $77,800 on Friday during early Asian hours. It has failed to break above Thursday’s high of $78,700. The rally that started in late March around $65,000 appears to have run out of steam since Wednesday.

Ether slipped 0.8% to around $2,300, underperforming Bitcoin’s 0.6% drop over the same period.

The weakness in crypto comes as Japan released new inflation figures. The country’s Corporate Service Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts of 3.0%.

Core inflation in Japan climbed to 1.8% in March, up from 1.6% in February. That is the first acceleration in five months. Headline inflation rose to 1.5% from 1.3%.

Bank of Japan in Focus

Analysts now expect the Bank of Japan to hold rates at its next meeting but issue a warning that hikes are coming. June is seen as a possible date for action.

If the Bank of Japan turns hawkish, the Japanese yen could strengthen sharply. Current market positioning on the yen is bearish, meaning there is room for a sudden reversal.

A stronger yen could be bad news for risk assets globally. The yen has historically been used to fund purchases of stocks and crypto. A yen rally could trigger a wave of selling across markets.

Iran has added more naval mines to the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to Axios. The Strait handles around 20% of the world’s seaborne oil. Shipping traffic there has dropped sharply since the conflict began in late February.

WTI crude futures have risen over 40% to $96 since the Iran war started. Japan, a major crude importer, is especially exposed to these price pressures.

The Pentagon told lawmakers it would take at least six months to clear the mines, and only after the war ends. It also warned that US inflation could stay elevated, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Stock Market Reaction

US stock futures were slightly higher overnight. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%. Dow futures dipped 0.2%.

Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but markets were largely unmoved. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all closed lower in the prior session.

Intel jumped around 15% in after-hours trading after posting better-than-expected first-quarter results. Tesla, IBM, and ServiceNow all fell after their own earnings reports.

Meta and Microsoft have announced job cuts to help manage rising costs tied to AI investment.

Friday’s earnings calendar includes Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, and Norfolk Southern.

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