Phemex and HTX have launched prediction markets

Two major crypto exchanges launched prediction market features on the same day, letting users wager real money on the outcomes of world events, a move that signals a growing push by centralized platforms into territory long held by decentralized services.

Phemex and HTX both went live on April 24, 2026, with products that allow traders to bet on whether certain real-world events will happen or not.

The launches mark a shift in the crypto industry, where event-based wagering has mostly been limited to decentralized platforms.

Now, large established exchanges are joining the race, pitching these products as a form of trading tied to news rather than gambling.

Prediction market products go live on the same day

Phemex, which boasts a user base of more than 10 million traders, launched a feature that allows users to take yes or no positions on outcomes in three categories: world events, sports, and cryptocurrencies.

Every transaction is made using an existing account on the site and uses USDT. The corporation held a four-week competition dubbed the Prediction Championship from April 23 to May 20, 2026, to pique people’s interest right away.

Users’ ability to forecast results determines their standing in the competition.

Federico Variola, CEO of Phemex, tied the product to broader changes in how markets work.

“Prediction markets represent an important evolution in market structure,” he said.

“They transform information and collective expectations into tradable signals. Bringing this category onto Phemex is part of our broader strategy to build a more complete trading ecosystem around how markets actually function today.”

On the same day, HTX released their own version, but it was more focused.

The first event focuses on whether the continuing negotiations between the United States and Iran will result in a deal. The event will begin with a prize pool of $8,000 USDT and run from April 24 to April 30, 2026.

Due to the addition of all trading fees earned during the event period, that sum increases over time. Bitcoin or Ethereum are traded by users who believe a deal will occur.

Those who think negotiations won’t succeed trade the gold-backed token XAUT.

Rivals and regulators are keeping a tight eye on

Both exchanges are following a path that Polymarket already paved. Just weeks before the twin launches, traders on Polymarket correctly called that Meta would carry out AI-related layoffs in the range of 8,000 to 15,800 workers.

Odds on that outcome climbed from 77% to 85% in just five days, ahead of any official announcement. Analysts said traders picked up on signals in Meta’s $135 billion AI spending plan and connected the dots before traditional news outlets did.

That single event generated $112,000 in bets before the news broke.

The core difference between Polymarket and the new entrants is how they are built. Polymarket runs without central control, drawing on a wide pool of users whose combined judgment drives the accuracy of its forecasts.

HTX and Phemex, by contrast, are centralized exchanges that are adding prediction bets on top of their existing trading setups.

Whether that structure can produce the same quality of crowd-sourced forecasting remains an open question.

Authorities have expressed concern about these markets’ expansion.

Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul recently filed a complaint against several companies operating in this space, naming Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com. His office called them unlicensed gambling operations.

“Masking illegal activity with flimsy pretenses does not make it legal,” Kaul said.

Whether these products are subject to federal regulation by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission or whether states have the authority to regard them as gambling and impose appropriate regulations is at the heart of the legal dispute.

The larger sector is keeping an eye on whether big, centrally managed platforms can replicate Polymarket’s forecasting track record.

The simultaneous debut of prediction products by two significant exchanges indicates a broader attempt by platforms to attract users by transforming everyday news into something on which people may express opinions.

Still letting the bank keep the best part? Watch our free video on being your own bank.