Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir to convey Tehran’s response to peace proposals. The odds for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 5.8% YES.
Traders are adjusting expectations after the meeting pointed to ongoing indirect negotiations via Pakistan. The odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 6.8% YES, with traders skeptical about reaching a direct agreement soon. The odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 are at 5.8%, down from 9% 24 hours ago.
The April 30 nuclear deal deadline is now just 6 days away. USDC volume in the nuclear deal market was $7,699, with $1,550 in depth required to move the odds 5 percentage points. The largest move in the past day was a 4-point spike at 3:50 PM (8% → 12%).
The continued reliance on Pakistan as an intermediary, rather than direct US-Iran contact, limits the scope for a comprehensive nuclear agreement before the deadline. At 6.8% YES, a YES share pays $1 for a 14.7x payout if a deal is struck by April 30. Traders buying at this price need to believe in a last-minute breakthrough with less than a week remaining.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Iran’s foreign ministry that could signal movement toward direct talks. A confirmed venue for face-to-face negotiations or a breakthrough on nuclear concessions would sharply reprice both markets.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-pakistan-discuss-peace-proposals-amid-indirect-us-iran-negotiations/
