Deutsche Bank sees Bitcoin in central bank reserves by 2030

Balance shift: a new report from Deutsche Bank opens up the possibility that Bitcoin may appear among the official reserves of central banks by 2030, alongside gold as a hedge asset.

While the dollar remains the core of the system, there is room for alternative assets in response to inflation and geopolitical tensions. In this context, the hypothesis moves from a niche scenario to an option monitored with greater attention; the thesis is consistent with the data on reserve compositions published by the IMF COFER, which show the persistence of the dollar’s role.

According to the data collected by our team of analysts and the on-chain verifications conducted in the first half of 2025, a measurable improvement in the depth of order books on regulated venues has been observed, along with a progressive average compression of spreads on institutional ETPs.

Interviews with custody desks and market operators also confirm that in 2025 numerous players completed infrastructure upgrades for institutional custody, improving governance and audit processes. These field findings reinforce the interpretation of Deutsche Bank and the available official data.

What the report says: coexistence with gold and decreasing volatility

Analysts at Deutsche Bank consider it plausible that Bitcoin could complement gold as a reserve asset. Among the key signals are a decreasing 30-day volatility—which reached multi-year lows in August 2025—a greater market depth, and enhanced regulatory attention in major jurisdictions.

It should be noted that the combination of these elements favors a progressive normalization of the asset.

The hypothesized path mirrors that of gold, moving from initial skepticism to gradual acceptance, due to its scarcity, low correlation with traditional markets, and its hedging function in macroeconomic stress scenarios. That said, coexistence with gold is seen as complementary, not substitutive.

Why Now: Three Adoption Drivers

• Diversification of reserves beyond dollar, euro, and gold, with a more balanced risk management.
• Geopolitics: the fragmentation of markets and the imposition of sanctions drive the search for assets considered “neutral,” useful in times of stress.
• Infrastructure: the evolution of institutional custody and clearer accounting standards facilitate adoption, reducing operational frictions.

By 2030: the factors that can make it realistic

Deutsche Bank suggests that some central banks might include Bitcoin in their balance sheets by 2030, while continuing to maintain gold as the primary reserve.

The trajectory will depend on elements such as regulatory clarity in the USA, EU, and Asia – as outlined in evolving provisions, including the MiCA package in Europe – the necessary price stability with further declines in volatility, and the liquidity of spot and derivatives markets, with tight spreads and reliability of instruments like ETP. Indeed, without these prerequisites, inclusion in reserves would remain premature.

• Rules: greater regulatory clarity in the USA, EU, and Asia and the full implementation of existing frameworks to reduce legal uncertainty.
• Stability: further reduction in volatility and lower correlation of Bitcoin with other assets during crises, confirming its role as a hedge.
• Liquidity: deeper spot and derivatives markets, reduced spreads, and consolidation of ETPs to ensure efficient execution.
• Custody and audit: institutional-grade solutions and verifiable on-chain controls, with independent verification processes.
• Accounting standards: consistent guidelines for fair value measurement and disclosure in financial statements, ensuring comparability.

Impact on the Markets: Key Numbers and Sources

• BTC Price: around 112,915.50 USD, according to the report (with data updated at the time of publication). Some sessions recorded peaks over 123,500 USD, highlighting a maturation trend, albeit with adjustment phases. Data updated as of September 22, 2025.
• 30-day Volatility: reached multi-year lows in August 2025, as reported by independent on-chain data sources. If confirmed, this aspect strengthens the thesis of a more mature market.
• Dollar share: the dollar accounts for about 57% of global reserves, according to the updated series from the IMF COFER. In other words, its dominance remains firm (most recent COFER data).
• China: US Treasury holdings have decreased by approximately 57 billion USD in 2024, according to data from the UST TIC portal. A signal that fits into the broader diversification strategy.
• Gold: reached an all-time high of approximately 3,763 USD/ounce (as highlighted on major futures, for example on the CME site) and recorded annual performances above 40% at certain stages, demonstrating its role as an anchor.

Countries and Areas: Where Adoption is More Likely

The scenario varies depending on access to the dollar, existing regulations, and monetary policy priorities. Some regions might adopt Bitcoin to a lesser extent or experience different dynamics. Yet, the direction of movement is being watched with increasing attention by more players.

• Latin America: economies characterized by high inflation and exchange rate risk might begin to experience small shares of usage; El Salvador remains an exceptional case, not replicable in other nations, at least in the short term.
• Middle East: a diversification strategy in gold is already visible, with a potentially exploratory interest in Bitcoin, albeit with strong caution and a gradual approach.
• Asia: Crypto-friendly jurisdictions could drive market innovations, while major central banks prefer stability and capital control, favoring incremental steps.
• Europe: the focus is on systemic risks and the digital euro dossier, with careful monitoring without immediate moves, in line with the prudential approach.
• United States: despite being at the forefront in terms of infrastructure and standards, there is little likelihood of a rapid direct adoption of Bitcoin in official reserves in the short term, given the institutional constraints.

Regulation and Stability: What to Watch

The regulatory and stability framework is consolidating. In Europe, the MiCA package is being implemented in phases, while in the USA, rules related to spot ETFs, custody, and accounting are being defined in an evolving context.

In Asia, financial hubs are refining licenses and prudential requirements for the crypto sector. In summary, the direction is towards greater clarity, but timing is crucial.

For the inclusion of Bitcoin in official reserves, market transparency, the reliability of custodians, and a fully operational AML/CFT framework are essential, along with a sustained reduction in volatility. That said, field verification of these requirements remains crucial.

Hedge against inflation: similarities and differences with gold

Bitcoin shares characteristics with gold such as scarcity and the function of a hedge against the erosion of purchasing power.

However, although Bitcoin has a shorter history and greater sensitivity to global liquidity cycles, according to Deutsche Bank, neither asset will replace the dollar, but both will help balance its risks in the reserve mix. In this context, the logic is one of complement and diversification.

FAQ

Why should a central bank include Bitcoin?

Diversification of reserves, reduction of exposure to dollar shocks, and obtaining a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks are among the main reasons.

Essential conditions are clear regulatory rules, high liquidity, secure custody, and contained volatility. Without these safeguards, the role of Bitcoin in reserves would necessarily remain limited.

Conclusions

The inclusion of Bitcoin in official balance sheets by 2030 seems plausible, although conditioned by progress on regulation, price stability, and market infrastructure.

The dollar remains the cornerstone of global reserves, while gold and Bitcoin could play a complementary hedging role in an increasingly fragmented financial context. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the market’s ability to consolidate stress-tested standards and practices.