China’s Luzon drills amid Balikatan signal pushback vs allied exercises

By Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel and Pexcel John Bacon

CHINA’S live-fire naval drills near northern Luzon reflect a “tit-for-tat” strategy aimed at countering expanded military cooperation between the Philippines and its allies, an analyst said.

“Beijing’s simultaneous mirroring of naval live drills shows a tit-for-tat strategy to demonstrate its presence and refusal [to recognize] the US and its allied forces in Philippine maritime and terrestrial domains,” Chester B. Cabalza, president at the International Development and Security Cooperation, said via Facebook Messenger.

The Chinese military’s Southern Theater Command on April 24 confirmed conducting live-fire exercises and maritime operations in waters facing Luzon, describing the activities as tests of joint operational capabilities.

The drills coincided with expanded joint exercises between the Philippines and its partners, including the US, under the annual Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercises.

Mr. Cabalza said the timing points to strategic signaling between the two sides, with China asserting its operational space in the South China Sea while responding to allied activities.

“The People’s Liberation Army Southern Command Theater called this intended action as a necessary response to reassure the Chinese people of their tactical space in the South China Sea,” he said.

He added that Manila has maintained an active defense posture during the Balikatan exercises to counter regional pressure.

“Manila reinforced its strategy through the active defense posture to counter Beijing’s pressure during the Balikatan exercises,” Mr. Cabalza said.

The overlapping drills reflect a pattern of reciprocal signaling between China and the Philippines and its allies, he said.

“The nature of the competing drills from both ends signal a cognitive and information warfare creating a dueling exercise scenario,” he added.

The Balikatan exercises, now on their 41^st iteration, focus on interoperability, maritime defense and joint operations.

About 17,000 troops from the Philippines, the US and Australia are participating this year, along with first-time participants Japan, France, Canada and New Zealand.

Lieutenant General Christian F. Wortman, commanding general of the I Marine Expeditionary Force, said the drills are not directed at any specific adversary.

China has repeatedly opposed expanded military cooperation between the Philippines and its allies, including Manila’s hosting of large-scale exercises.

In a commentary published in the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, the Philippines was criticized for deepening security ties while pursuing economic engagement with Beijing.

“These contradictory actions reveal an opportunistic strategy by certain Philippine politicians to simultaneously leverage external allies… while seeking economic cooperation with China,” according to the commentary.

Analysts said Beijing’s actions also reflect efforts to use economic tools alongside military signaling.

Mr. Cabalza said China’s moves to leverage resources such as energy and fertilizer signal unease over the Philippines’ alliance with the US.

Far Eastern University Department of International Studies faculty member Francis M. Esteban said the developments highlight risks in relying on China as an economic partner.

“China infamously implies economic statecraft, and it’s a good thing that the Philippines has a profound base of networks and partners we can try and reach out to,” he said.

Both analysts said the Philippines should continue pursuing partnerships aligned with its national interest.

“The dichotomy of choice between the US and China should not stop us from reaching out to other states willing to help,” Mr. Esteban said.

Mr. Cabalza said the Philippines should remain firm in its independent foreign policy, noting that the expansion of Balikatan reflects broader strategic realities in the region.

This year’s joint military exercises marked the 75^th year of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the US.

A day after the Balikatan launch, the Chinese Embassy in Manila blamed the military drills for Filipino fisherfolk’s challenges in Subic Bay, saying that the foreign warships’ occupation of the fishing grounds and high fuel prices have made it difficult for fishermen to go out to sea.