Trump’s criticism of Norah O’Donnell on “60 Minutes” has the “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30” market sitting at 100% YES.
The April 30 market was already at 100% YES before this incident, and sub-markets for other potential targets, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, also sit at 100% YES. There is essentially no volume or movement in these markets. Traders aren’t debating whether Trump will insult someone, just who and when. His attack on O’Donnell fits the pattern and adds another name to the list.
At 100¢, a YES share pays nothing beyond the purchase price, which reflects absolute confidence in the outcome. The only real action would come from contrarian bets. If a trader believed some cooling-off period was possible, even a small odds shift from 100% would create a return opportunity, but nobody is taking that position right now.
The market’s structure means the interesting question is whether anyone will bet against the consensus. Watch Trump’s social media activity and public appearances. A new target or any unexpected restraint could crack the 100% ceiling and create brief trading windows.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-criticizes-norah-odonnell-on-60-minutes-amid-prediction-market-buzz/
