East vs West stablecoin cold war emerges in battle for the first trillion dollar stablecoin

MetaMask’s mUSD, the European Union’s digital euro initiative, and Hong Kong’s offshore yuan token AxCNH set up a three-way contest for on-chain payments.

The prize is not trading volume or speculative flows, it is the share of real-world settlement that could reach $2 to $4 trillion annually if 1 to 2 percent of global cross-border payments move to tokenized rails.

According to the IMF and industry research, such as McKinsey, the addressable base for cross-border activity ranges in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, depending on scope, making even low single-digit penetration material on a one-year to two-year horizon.

US dollar holds significant stablecoin advantage

Dollar rails have the immediate advantage because distribution is already embedded in retail and developer workflows. mUSD ships inside MetaMask, is issued through Stripe’s Bridge, and uses M0 for on-chain mechanics. Reserves are structured for 1:1 backing and reporting.

The product launched in mid-September 2025 on Ethereum and Linea with wallet-level issuance and redemption that connects to existing card and merchant pathways.

The combination puts issuance, spend, and on and off-ramps in the same user interface and developer stack, a configuration that can compress settlement steps without introducing new front ends.

The United States also now has a federal rulebook. The GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, requires fiat-referenced tokens to hold liquid reserves with monthly disclosures and may be issued by banks or licensed nonbanks. This creates a path for payment companies to distribute stablecoins within existing merchant networks.

Europe is building a different strategy. The digital euro aims to reduce dependence on foreign card networks for retail payments, and finance ministers are moving legislation toward early 2026.

Per Reuters, policymakers are working through privacy, holding limits, and bank funding risk, and the European Central Bank has signaled a multi-year implementation plan after the enabling law. MiCA already shaped the competitive field before any central bank token existed.

According to professional guidance summarizing MiCA’s payment usage thresholds, non-euro stablecoins used for everyday payments inside the bloc face usage ceilings of 1 million transactions or 200 million euros per day on a quarterly average, which nudges point of sale activity toward euro-denominated instruments and, eventually, a digital euro scheme once live.

Asia focuses on policy over market cap

China-aligned rails add a third vector focusing on corridors, not global share. AxCNH, an offshore yuan stablecoin, has launched from Hong Kong with a licensing path under the city’s stablecoin regime and messaging oriented to Belt and Road settlement.

Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime provides the compliance venue while convertibility and mainland policy remain the swing factors for scaling CNH tokens across trade platforms, custodians, and exchanges.

Mainland caution over tokenization has also surfaced, with the securities regulator reportedly asking some brokers to pause RWA activity in Hong Kong.

The bloc approach already appears in sanctioned markets. Recent ruble stablecoin activity demonstrates that policy-linked tokens can move value in specific ways even if aggregate market capitalization remains far below the dollar supply.

Market capitalization, not transactional flow, is the scoreboard for the next phase because it captures durable float.

The current baseline, per DeFiLlama, shows dollar pegged stablecoins at about $291.7 billion with Tether at roughly 59 percent share, euro pegged supply at about $480 million with EURC near half the total, and other pegs still small by comparison.

The share mix has shifted during the last two months as USDT’s dominance fell below 60 percent while USDC regained ground and new entrants began to seed supply.

The key test for mUSD is whether embedded distribution accelerates float growth faster than exchange-led minting models, and whether Stripe’s merchant network shortens the distance from wallet to receipt.

Race to $1 trillion market cap

A 12 to 24-month framing clarifies what it takes to reach the first $1 trillion in market cap.

From a starting point near $292 billion, reaching $1 trillion in 24 months requires roughly 85 percent annualized growth, in 18 months about 127 percent, and in 12 months above 240 percent.

Those rates don’t pass judgment on feasibility but represent the hurdle rates implied by the math and set the bar for product distribution and compliance readiness.

The most credible catalysts line up in the United States because the GENIUS Act lowers policy risk for payment companies, card partners, and banks that want to issue or distribute stablecoins, while yield on short-term Treasurys continues to make fully reserved tokens economical to hold for working capital and treasury operations.

If payment processors route settlement into stablecoins at the edge, inventory will migrate from exchanges toward wallets with direct merchant links.

Europe’s path centers on domestic retail. If non-Euro tokens run into MiCA usage ceilings inside the bloc, merchants will emphasize Euro instruments for day-to-day transactions, and the digital euro could become the default rail after live launch.

That outcome would not immediately raise the euro stablecoin market cap to the dollar scale because cross-border and offshore flows would still prefer the deepest liquidity pools. Still, it would shape the point of sale mix in the single market.

The implementation clock also matters

Legislation in early 2026 would still leave two and a half to three years for buildout, testing, and rulebook finalization, which places mass availability closer to 2027 or 2028.

AxCNH and other state-aligned tokens point to a corridor strategy rather than a global capture strategy. The question is not whether CNH can replace dollar liquidity, it is whether licensed offshore issuance in Hong Kong plus trade finance platforms can sustain settlement volumes in defined routes.

Issuance scale will depend on convertibility mechanics, bank participation, and China’s stance toward private tokenization experiments. Local licensing, anti-money laundering requirements, and supervision can solve compliance at the venue level, while currency controls and onshore policy will govern depth and velocity.

The macro base case behind the $2 to $4 trillion payments figure remains intact.

According to the IMF and payments industry analysis, cross-border value processed annually is measured in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, and the mix is migrating to ISO 20022 and data-rich formats that pair well with programmable settlement.

Stablecoins provide instant finality at the edge and predictable redemption into bank money, which is why payment companies are moving from card-linked crypto rewards toward direct stablecoin settlement in merchant flows.

If even one percent of the conservative $200 trillion base settles on token rails, annual on-chain payments would reach $2 trillion, and at two percent, $4 trillion, with float requirements and working capital buffers driving market capitalization above transactional averages.

Three operational questions will separate winners.

First is distribution, which means how quickly mUSD, USDC, and peers bind issuance to checkout, invoicing, and payroll with settlement that converts into bank depositories without manual steps.

Second is rulebooks, which means whether U.S. licensing produces bank-grade programs and whether MiCA’s daily caps push EU retail toward euro instruments before the digital euro arrives.

Third is corridors, which means whether Hong Kong’s licensing, custody, and exchange infrastructure can lift CNH tokens into trade settlement without policy whiplash.

Key facts

• USDT’s share is below 60 percent, and the rise of alternatives gives the market headroom to reallocate float as new rails become available. mUSD’s wallet native issuance creates a direct line from user to merchant.
• The digital euro legislative plan puts law in 2026 and multi-year build-out thereafter.
• AxCNH has gone live with a compliance path focused on offshore yuan.

mUSD is live inside a distribution channel, the digital euro legislation is targeted for early 2026, and AxCNH has launched in Hong Kong.

Given that Tether’s USDT currently has a higher market cap than all other stablecoins combined, it is easy to assume the first $1 trillion stablecoin will be pegged to the dollar.

However, institutional adoption into traditional payment rails outside the US could realistically create a ‘Tortoise and the Hare’ race in which the encumbrance loses out.

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