Ford (F) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Wednesday

TLDR

• Wall Street expects Ford to report Q1 operating profit of $1.3B on $42.7B in sales
• Ford has faced aluminum supply issues since a fire at Novelis’ Oswego plant in September
• Tariff costs, high oil prices, and commodity inflation are adding pressure heading into the print
• Ford projected full-year 2026 operating profit of $8B–$10B, up from $6.8B in 2025
• Ford stock is down 5% year-to-date but up 24% over the past 12 months

Ford Motor reports first-quarter earnings after the close on Wednesday, and Wall Street is watching closely to see if the automaker can navigate a bumpy start to the year.

Ford Motor Company, F

Analysts expect an operating profit of $1.3 billion on sales of $42.7 billion. That would be an improvement from Q1 2025, when Ford posted $1 billion in operating profit on $40.7 billion in sales.

BofA Securities analyst Alexander Perry flagged some risk to wholesale volumes in the quarter. He pointed to “lumpiness in production” caused by sourcing alternative aluminum after a fire at Novelis’ Oswego, New York plant knocked out supply last September.

That aluminum crunch is just one piece of the puzzle. Ford has also been dealing with tariff costs, elevated oil prices, and broader commodity price inflation heading into the report.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli is more upbeat. He expects favorable pricing and vehicle mix to absorb much of the pressure and deliver a solid quarter.

Guidance in Focus

Beyond the Q1 numbers, investors will be paying close attention to what management says about the full year.

Ford currently guides for $8 billion to $10 billion in 2026 operating profit. That compares to $6.8 billion in 2025 and a peak of $10.2 billion in 2024.

Any upward revision to that range could be a meaningful catalyst for the stock. General Motors raised its 2026 guidance by $500 million on Tuesday — to a range of $13.5 billion to $14.5 billion — and its stock climbed 1.3% on the day.

GM also flagged rising memory chip costs on its earnings call, a cost headwind that is showing up across the auto sector.

EV Sales and Financial Health

Ford’s electric vehicle numbers have been a weak spot. EV sales reportedly dropped 71% in February, a sharp decline that adds to concerns about the pace of its transition strategy.

GuruFocus rates Ford’s financial strength at just 3 out of 10, citing high debt levels. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.27, which is low relative to the broader market.

One insider did purchase 140,000 shares in recent months, which some may read as a vote of confidence heading into earnings.

Ford’s GF Score sits at 70 out of 100 — moderate territory. Profitability scores a 6, but growth ranks just 2, reflecting the revenue pressure the company is under.

Analysts are expecting earnings per share to rise nearly 36% year-over-year, though revenue is projected to dip around 4.5% to roughly $38.83 billion in some estimates.

Ford stock trades at $12.29 and holds a market cap of approximately $49.3 billion. It is down 5% in 2026 but up 24% over the past year.

Results are due after the closing bell on Wednesday.

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