Bitcoin Drawdown Hits 39% but Still Above Bear Market Lows: Analysis

Bitcoin sits 39% below its ATH with spot buyers active and perp shorts piling up. Analysts say conditions differ from past cycle lows.

Bitcoin continues to trade well below its all-time high. The current pullback stands near 39%, roughly 205 days after the peak. Analysts at CryptoQuant flagged this in a recent post. 

Spot buyers remain active, yet derivatives traders are moving in the opposite direction. The divergence is drawing close attention across the crypto market.

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Bitcoin Drawdown Compared to Past Cycle Lows

CryptoQuant’s data puts the current decline in sharp historical context. 

Past bear markets saw far steeper losses before a bottom formed. The 2015 cycle low came after an 86% drop from peak levels. The 2018 and 2022 cycles bottomed at roughly 83% and 76% declines, respectively.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto_glass noted a gradual shift in market structure over the years. More recent bear markets have generally produced shallower losses than earlier cycles. 

Even so, the current 39% drawdown remains far short of prior capitulation levels. As Crypto_glass put it, current conditions still differ materially from past cyclical lows.

Spot Buyers and Perp Shorts Pull in Opposite Directions

Market analyst IT_Tech_PL shared detailed order flow data after Bitcoin swept the $74,900 level and bounced to $78,000. 

Spot cumulative volume delta rose by over $134 million, pointing to net buying throughout the move. Perpetual futures CVD, on the other hand, dropped by more than $385 million. Perp traders sold into every bounce during the same period.

The funding rate sat at a mild +0.0005%, with longs paying shorts. IT_Tech_PL noted that spot delta and perp delta both showed bid-side dominance. However, the persistent selling pressure in perps told a different story. 

According to IT_Tech_PL, when spot CVD climbs while perp CVD falls, that sets up a potential squeeze, not distribution.

Traders Watch Key Levels as BTC Holds Above $74,800

Analyst Lennaert Snyder shared his outlook after Bitcoin printed a new low following the FOMC event. He identified a large 4-hour imbalance near the $76,963 area from the most recent move down. 

Snyder noted he held a swing short and was watching for a retest of that imbalance before adding. His short target pointed toward taking out the $74,814 level.

Snyder also pointed out that the previous daily low near $74,936 was holding at the time of his post. 

The previous daily high stood at roughly $77,906, marking the near-term trading range. 

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was priced at $76,090 at the time of reporting. That reflected a 1.82% decline over 24 hours and a 1.73% drop over the past seven days.

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