Moderna (MRNA) Surges Nearly 8% as Q1 Revenue Crushes Wall Street Forecasts

Key Highlights

• Shares of Moderna climbed approximately 8% during premarket hours following a first-quarter revenue surprise
• First-quarter revenue surged to $389 million, representing more than a threefold increase from the prior year, surpassing the $228 million consensus
• Overseas markets accounted for $311 million in sales, fueled by strategic agreements in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia
• Loss per share of $3.40 came in better than the expected $3.96, despite absorbing approximately $900 million related to a patent settlement
• The biotech company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue growth projection of as much as 10%

Shares of Moderna were trading up approximately 8% before the opening bell on Friday following the company’s disclosure of first-quarter financial results that exceeded analyst projections across key metrics.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

The Cambridge-based biotech reported first-quarter revenue of $389 million, representing a dramatic increase from the $108 million recorded in the same period last year. The figure significantly outpaced Wall Street’s consensus estimate of approximately $228 million, based on LSEG data.

The primary catalyst behind the revenue surge was robust demand for COVID-19 vaccines in overseas markets. Revenue from international territories reached $311 million, dwarfing the $78 million generated domestically.

This represents a meaningful pivot in the company’s performance narrative. In recent quarters, Moderna had cautioned stakeholders about softening demand for COVID vaccines. The latest quarter reversed that trend.

Bottom Line Improves Despite Substantial Legal Settlement

The company reported a net loss of $1.34 billion for the quarter, translating to a loss of $3.40 per share. This represented a smaller loss than the $3.96 per share analysts had anticipated.

It’s important to note that the quarterly loss incorporated a substantial charge of approximately $900 million connected to a patent dispute resolution with Genevant Sciences and Arbutus Biopharma. Both entities had claimed Moderna unlawfully utilized their proprietary lipid nanoparticle delivery system in the development of its Spikevax COVID vaccine.

The settlement was finalized in March. This legal resolution also resulted in Moderna raising its anticipated cost of sales for the full 2026 fiscal year to $1.8 billion, doubling the previous estimate of $900 million.

Despite the settlement impact, the company managed to reduce both research and development and selling, general, and administrative expenses during the period, contributing to improved overall loss metrics.

Future Products and Financial Guidance

Moderna maintained its revenue growth guidance for 2026, projecting expansion of up to 10%, with approximately half anticipated to originate from markets outside the United States—an increase from 38% in the previous year.

For the current quarter, the company expects revenue in the range of $50 million to $100 million, with contributions split evenly between domestic and international sources.

RBC Capital analyst Luca Issi highlighted that Moderna’s annual revenue profile is heavily backend-loaded for 2026, with just 15% projected to materialize in the first six months.

Looking beyond COVID-19, Moderna is awaiting late-stage clinical data for a norovirus vaccine candidate and a personalized cancer vaccine being co-developed with Merck. The FDA has scheduled an August 5 decision date for the company’s messenger RNA-based influenza vaccine, following resolution of previous disagreements with regulators concerning clinical trial methodology.

The company is also advancing a therapeutic candidate targeting a rare metabolic condition, reflecting its strategic expansion beyond infectious disease applications.

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