IonQ Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today

TLDR

• IonQ reports Q1 earnings Wednesday; Wall Street expects EPS of -$0.52 on revenue of ~$49.73M
• Revenue is forecast to grow 557% year-on-year for Q1, off a near-flat base last year
• Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $47; Wedbush has a $60 target with an Outperform rating
• Nvidia cited IonQ as an early adopter of its Ising Calibration AI models for error correction
• IONQ is up 57.3% over the past month, heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $65.27

IonQ reports Q1 2026 earnings this Wednesday after the close. The quantum computing company trades around $46.01 heading in, well below the average analyst price target of $65.27.

IonQ, Inc., IONQ

Wall Street is looking for EPS of -$0.52 on revenue of $49.73M. That would represent a jaw-dropping 557% year-on-year revenue increase, compared to near-flat revenue in Q1 last year.

For context, IonQ gave its own Q1 guidance of $48M–$51M during the Q4 call, so analysts are sitting right in the middle of that range.

Last quarter, the company delivered revenues of $61.89M — up 429% year-on-year — and beat both EPS and revenue estimates. Over the last two years, IONQ has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.

EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions versus two downward moves in the last three months. Revenue estimates have seen 11 upward revisions and zero downward moves.

Full-year 2026 guidance called for revenue between $225M and $245M. Morgan Stanley thinks IonQ could beat that range and raised its price target to $47 from $38 ahead of Wednesday’s print.

Analyst Targets and Key Catalysts

Wedbush has an Outperform rating and a $60 price target on the stock. Its analyst Antoine Legault pointed to Nvidia naming IonQ as an early adopter of the Ising Calibration — an open AI model suite aimed at delivering up to 2.5x faster and 3x more accurate error correction decoding.

Legault said it signals that IonQ’s trapped-ion architecture is being seen by Nvidia as “production-ready and technically credible,” and that it deepens the relationship between the two companies.

Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating and the average SA analyst rating both sit at Hold. But Noah’s Arc Capital Management holds a Strong Buy, citing IonQ’s leadership in quantum key distribution and hardware-based cybersecurity. The firm projects combined revenues of $1B this year following the SkyWater merger.

IONQ Stock Performance

IONQ is up 57.3% over the past month, easily outpacing the broader IT services and tech segment, which has averaged gains of 8.7% over the same period.

Year-to-date, the stock is up about 1.2%, trailing the S&P 500’s roughly 6% gain.

The SkyWater merger has drawn attention. Noah’s Arc sees potential for revenues to hit $5B within five years, driven by growing demand for post-quantum cybersecurity solutions.

Investors will watch closely for any updates on new contracts, customer base expansion, and whether management raises or tightens its full-year revenue range.

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