Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: VanEck Says $1 Million Is the Base Case Within Five Years

TLDR

• VanEck’s Matthew Sigel told CNBC that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.
• Sigel said $1 million is VanEck’s “base case” for Bitcoin’s long-term price.
• He compared Bitcoin adoption to the video game industry, noting people “don’t quit.”
• Bitcoin was trading around $81,000 at the time of the interview, down for the year.
• Sigel pointed to Bitcoin’s five-year high correlation with the Nasdaq and low speculation in derivatives markets as signs of a healthy rally.

VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, made a bold claim on Wednesday: Bitcoin could hit $1 million within five years.

At the time of the interview, Bitcoin was trading around $81,000, down on the year but up over the past month.

What’s Driving the Current Rally?

Sigel pointed to two key factors behind Bitcoin’s recent price gains. First, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has reached a five-year high, meaning it has been moving in line with tech stocks. Second, he noted that derivatives markets are showing little sign of froth, suggesting the rally is being driven by short covering rather than speculative bets.

He also cited a central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves as a sign that adoption is maturing, though he did not name the institution.

VanEck is not the only firm calling for a seven-figure Bitcoin price. Last month, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan made the same call. On the same day as Sigel’s interview, Eric Trump — son of President Donald Trump — also said Bitcoin would surpass $1 million. Eric Trump co-founded American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining and treasury company.

Who Else Is Calling $1 Million?

In 2024, VanEck’s own CEO, Jan Van Eck, predicted Bitcoin would hit $300,000. The new $1 million target is a significant step up from that figure.

It is worth noting that many of these forecasters have financial stakes tied to Bitcoin’s price. VanEck runs Bitcoin-related products, and affiliated firms benefit when prices rise.

According to prediction platform Kalshi, odds were roughly split on whether Bitcoin would return to $100,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin was trading at $81,221 as of 3:18 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

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