Ethereum Price Eyes Mid-Week Bounce as Selling Pressure Craters 85%

Ethereum (ETH) price hovers near $2,330 mid-week with sellers fading sharply, leaving an 8-hour reversal structure one candle away from confirming a possible bounce.

The setup ties together a textbook bottoming pattern, an exhaustion signal on momentum, and an 85% drop in coins flowing onto exchanges. Whether ETH delivers the bounce depends on a single candle holding the line.

Ethereum Price Builds Reversal Structure as Momentum Quietly Diverges

The 8-hour chart shows ETH carving an inverse head-and-shoulders since mid-April. The pattern prints a low (left shoulder), a deeper low (head), and a higher low (right shoulder). The right shoulder formation is close to being confirmed now.

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Sitting under that price action is a developing hidden bullish divergence. ETH price has made a higher low between mid-April and early May, while RSI (relative strength index), a momentum gauge, is close to printing a lower low over the same window. Hidden bullish divergence often signals exhaustion of selling pressure, not the start of a fresh leg down.

The trigger is binary. If the next candle holds above the current right-shoulder floor ($2,309 to be exact), the divergence confirms and the pattern stays alive. If sellers force a break, both the structure and the divergence collapse together.

That setup, however, needs validation from on-chain flows before it earns the right to a projected 9% price target.

Sellers Retreat as Mid-Term Holders Build Their Stack

Glassnode data shows the exchange net position change, a metric that tracks tokens flowing in and out of exchanges, eased sharply this week. The reading peaked at 78,930 ETH on May 3, when fresh inflows pointed to selling pressure rising. By May 6, that figure had dropped to 11,504 ETH, an 85% reduction.

The collapse suggests whoever was offloading ETH around the right shoulder may be running out of supply.

A second on-chain layer reinforces the read. Glassnode’s HODL waves group supply by how long holders have kept their coins. The 6-month to 12-month cohort sat at 18.12% of supply on April 22. By May 6, that share had climbed to 21.49%.

The data suggests mid-term holders are adding to their position even as price stays compressed. This cohort often re-engages near cycle bottoms.

Both flows lean in the same direction as the chart pattern. The price chart now becomes the decider on whether buyers convert that backdrop into a measurable move this week.

Ethereum Price Levels That Decide the Mid-Week Move

With the pattern, divergence, and on-chain flows aligned, the focus shifts to the price ladder on the 8-hour chart. The current right-shoulder floor sits at $2,309, marked as the 0 Fibonacci anchor.

The first hurdle is $2,358. ETH then needs to reclaim $2,388 (0.382 Fib) and $2,412 (0.5 Fib). The 0.5 level briefly capped price on May 6 before sellers stepped in.

The neckline sits at $2,423, lining up between the 0.5 and the 0.618 Fibonacci at $2,436. A clean break above this band activates the pattern. The measured move projects roughly 9% upside from the neckline. That target lines up with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $2,642.

The downside ladder is just as defined. Failure to reclaim $2,358 followed by a loss of $2,309 would invalidate the right shoulder. Below that, $2,218, the head’s low, is where the entire pattern unwinds.

Hidden bullish divergence and falling exchange inflows both lean toward the bounce read, but neither replaces a confirmed close. Ethereum managing to stay above $2,309 separates a 9% Ethereum price bounce toward $2,642 from a slide to the $2,218 invalidation floor.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-price-bounce-rsi-divergence-analysis/