PANews reported on September 24th that XWIN Research analysis showed Bitcoin's implied volatility had fallen to its lowest level since 2023, a low previously seen before Bitcoin's 325% surge from $29,000 to $124,000. This has sparked concern about whether the "calm before the storm" phenomenon is returning. CryptoQuant's on-chain data supports this trend: First, exchange reserves are declining, with total balances near multi-year lows, indicating a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale, a historical precursor to supply tightening during periods of rising demand. Second, the MVRV ratio is in a neutral range, indicating neither significant investor losses nor excessive profits, with no panic selling or profit-taking pressure in the market, and a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment. Third, funding rates are balanced, with neither excessive long or short positions, mirroring subdued volatility and indicating a accumulating market momentum. These three signals paint a consistent picture: a decreasing supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, investors holding onto their holdings, and a calm derivatives market. While implied volatility suggests we are currently experiencing one of the calmest periods in years, history shows such periods rarely last.PANews reported on September 24th that XWIN Research analysis showed Bitcoin's implied volatility had fallen to its lowest level since 2023, a low previously seen before Bitcoin's 325% surge from $29,000 to $124,000. This has sparked concern about whether the "calm before the storm" phenomenon is returning. CryptoQuant's on-chain data supports this trend: First, exchange reserves are declining, with total balances near multi-year lows, indicating a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale, a historical precursor to supply tightening during periods of rising demand. Second, the MVRV ratio is in a neutral range, indicating neither significant investor losses nor excessive profits, with no panic selling or profit-taking pressure in the market, and a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment. Third, funding rates are balanced, with neither excessive long or short positions, mirroring subdued volatility and indicating a accumulating market momentum. These three signals paint a consistent picture: a decreasing supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, investors holding onto their holdings, and a calm derivatives market. While implied volatility suggests we are currently experiencing one of the calmest periods in years, history shows such periods rarely last.