Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Falls Below $80K Despite Record ETF Inflows – Watch these Levels

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped to $79,800 after being rejected at $82,800 resistance
• Weekly spot BTC ETF inflows hit $1.105 billion — the highest since January
• Key support sits between $76,000–$78,000, aligning with the 200-day EMA
• Analyst Ali Charts flags $80,300 as the critical whale cost basis level to watch
• Glassnode identifies $85,200 as the next major resistance ceiling

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Thursday after hitting resistance at $82,800, dropping to a low of $79,800. The move came despite a strong week of ETF inflows that surpassed $1 billion for the first time since January.

Bearish divergences appeared on the one-hour and four-hour RSI charts, signaling fading buying momentum. A bearish divergence forms when price makes higher highs while the RSI moves lower — a sign that a rally may be running out of steam.

Crypto trader Jelle pointed to the 200-day moving average and EMA cluster as acting as resistance, and identified $78,000 as the first major support area. Trader Killa XBT flagged a deeper support zone between $76,300 and $74,700 if selling pressure continues.

The weekly open at $78,500 is the key short-term level bulls are defending. Below that, the daily fair value gap between $76,000 and $78,000 aligns with the 200-day EMA and represents a likely retest zone.

The $80,300 Whale Level

Analyst Ali Charts highlighted $80,300 as the most critical level to watch right now. That figure represents the average cost basis of new whales — entities that bought Bitcoin in the last 155 days.

When Bitcoin trades below $80,300, those whales are sitting at a loss. Bitcoin briefly pushed to $82,800 before falling back under this level. If it stays below $80,300, those whales may sell to break even, adding more downside pressure.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five straight days of net inflows as of Wednesday, totaling $1.69 billion — the longest inflow streak since July 2025. Wednesday alone brought in $46.3 million.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has cleared two key onchain levels: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79,100. Trading above both puts most active market participants back in profit.

ETF Demand and the Road to $85,200

Santiment data showed Bitcoin’s holder count dropped by 245,000 wallets in five days — the fastest decline in nearly two years. Santiment noted this mirrors a June–July 2024 pattern where over 964,000 wallets exited before a major bull run followed.

Perpetual futures funding rates remain negative despite a 26% recovery from February lows, suggesting short sellers are still active. Glassnode noted long-term holders are realizing around $180 million per day in profit — measured, not aggressive.

Glassnode’s next target is the Active Realized Price at $85,200, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply. That is where overhead selling pressure is expected to increase.

Bitcoin was trading just under $80,000 during U.S. market hours Thursday. Glassnode stated a break above $85,200, backed by continued spot demand, is needed to confirm the recovery has structural legs.

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