Bitcoin Bulls Need One More Signal To Confirm Market Bottom – Details

The heaviest resistance sitting above Bitcoin’s current price isn’t a round number or a chart pattern — it’s the break-even point of millions of holders who bought in during the past year and are still underwater.

One Level Controls The Narrative

A CryptoQuant market expert says the “bottom is in” crowd is getting ahead of the data. According to the analyst, Bitcoin must reclaim $88,880 and hold it before any bottom call can be treated as credible.

Simply touching that level won’t cut it. The price needs to close above it and stay there — otherwise, the rally is just noise.

The reasoning centers on realized price bands, a metric that tracks the average cost basis of different groups of holders. Three cohorts are currently sitting above Bitcoin’s spot price, meaning they bought in at higher levels and are waiting to get back to even.

The first group — holders from three to six months ago — has a realized price of $88,880. Those who held for 12 to 18 months are sitting at $93,400.

The largest and most worrying group, holders from six to 12 months ago, has a cost basis of $111,800 — close to 30% above where Bitcoin was trading when the analysis was published.

When Bitcoin climbs back toward those levels, many of those holders are expected to sell. They’re not looking for profit. They just want out.

Why The $60,000 Low Sparked Bottom Calls

Earlier this year, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 in February — a drop of roughly 52% from its all-time high of $126,200. Since then, the price has climbed more than 37% without setting a new low.

That recovery is what fueled the bottom narrative. With no fresh lows on the chart, many market watchers concluded the worst was behind Bitcoin.

The Fear and Greed Index backed up the improving mood. Reports show the index climbed from a near-maximum fear reading of five in February all the way to 47 — a neutral reading that signals the market has stabilized compared to its earlier panic state.

Data Over Sentiment

IT Tech’s sharpest point came at the end of the analysis. Bottom calls, the analyst wrote, are narratives. Reclaiming and holding $88,880 is data.

At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $80,250. That puts the key confirmation level roughly $8,000 away.

Until that gap closes — and holds — the analyst says the market structure still favors caution over confidence.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView