Stablecoin Dominance Nears 10% and the Chart Is Screaming

Stablecoin dominance TBO support jumped from 8% to nearly 10%, a shift analysts say mirrors 2022 bear market pivot patterns. Not financial advice.

Combined stablecoin dominance TBO support jumped from 8.051% to just under 10%, landing at 9.986%. According to MooninPapa on X, that kind of shift does not happen on ordinary sessions. It marks major pivot moments.

Thursday’s close did most of the damage. A bearish engulfing candle on TOTALES.D confirmed the setup, and now the stablecoin dominance chart is pressing straight into a level that could decide how far this rolls over.

When Support Moves This Hard, Something Is Breaking

The last comparable TBO support shift happened January 15th. Before that, it moved from 5.57% up to 8.237%. Both times, the broader market felt it within days.

MooninPapa, posting on X and in a YouTube market update, pointed to the TBO fast line near 10.4% as the line in the sand. A confirmed daily close above that level, he said, likely kicks off a much larger rollover across crypto. He still expects Bitcoin to go considerably lower in 2026, framing it as a bottom year.

TOTALES.D is telling the same story in reverse. It represents total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, expressed as a dominance percentage. Stablecoin dominance rising means fear climbing. TOTALES.D falling means greed draining. Both moved the same session.

TOTALES.D is back inside the cloud. If it closes below TBO support at 88.63%, MooninPapa said on X, the next stop is likely the bottom of the cloud, then potentially much lower from there.

The 13% Number Nobody Wants to See

MooninPapa’s longer-term target is not 10%. Not even 11%. He has an alert sitting at 13.3%.

That is where he begins treating the market as an accumulation zone. Where spot DCA capital starts deploying. The conversation shifts from how low to how long.

The 2022 parallel is hard to ignore here. Back in April of that year, TBO support made the same kind of jump, moving from roughly 3.91% to around 6.2%. Stablecoin dominance eventually pushed all the way to 16% before the market found any real floor.

OTHERS dominance is going parabolic right now. MooninPapa noted on X that the OTHERS market cap is running into the same pivot-high structure that failed in January, just before the next leg lower. Per his read, the setup looks nearly identical.

He was direct about the broader picture. “The broader setup still looks like a bull trap to me,” MooninPapa wrote on X. He added that the final capitulation dump is what he has been waiting for, because that is what historically creates the better accumulation opportunity afterward.

Whether stablecoin dominance peaks at 13% or pushes toward 16% like the last cycle is still unresolved. For now, the market is watching 10.4%.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis shared by the cited source and reflects the views of the analyst referenced. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.

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