Evidence-Based Forecast of an Upcoming BlackRock XRP ETF

Crypto researcher SMQKE recently revisited a proof as to why BlackRock has not filed for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

SMQKE shared an “evidence-based forecast of an upcoming BlackRock ETF,” while directing attention back to a previous detailed explanation outlining why the asset manager had not yet filed for an XRP ETF.

The renewed focus on the older post comes as speculation around crypto-based ETFs continues to grow across the digital asset sector. XRP remains one of the most discussed assets in ETF conversations, especially after developments involving futures products, ongoing regulatory reviews, and increasing institutional activity in crypto markets.

In the highlighted post, SMQKE argued that BlackRock’s absence from the XRP ETF race did not indicate a lack of interest. Instead, the researcher presented several reasons suggesting that the company may simply be waiting for more favorable conditions before making a move.

Regulatory Conditions Remain a Central Issue

According to the earlier analysis, regulatory uncertainty remains one of the primary factors delaying a potential XRP ETF filing. SMQKE noted that although the court ruled that XRP is not a security in the secondary market, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has continued to delay decisions tied to crypto ETFs and broader digital asset classifications.

It is important to note that as of May 2026, the regulatory fog surrounding XRP has cleared significantly. The SEC and CFTC finally settled this debate in March 2026. Through a joint final rule, XRP was officially classified as a digital commodity, placing it in the same legal category as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Futures Market and Liquidity Seen as Key Factors

SMQKE also highlighted the importance of institutional-grade derivatives markets. The post referenced the launch of XRP CME futures on May 19, 2025, noting that the product generated $19 million in volume on its first day.

Although he described the launch as an important development, he argued that the XRP futures market is still relatively new compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The earlier commentary stated that large institutions generally look for sustained trading activity and deeper liquidity before fully committing to investment products tied to a digital asset. According to SMQKE, BlackRock may want to see XRP’s derivatives market mature further before introducing an ETF product.

Liquidity was another major point in the analysis. While XRP was described as having strong market depth compared to many altcoins, SMQKE argued that ETF products require consistently high liquidity to support large inflows and outflows. The post stated that regulators closely monitor these conditions when reviewing ETF applications.

BlackRock’s Current Priorities Remain Focused Elsewhere

The researcher also claimed that BlackRock’s current attention remains centered on expanding its already successful Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF offerings. Those products have continued attracting strong institutional demand, which, according to SMQKE, may explain why the company has not rushed into the XRP ETF market.

At the same time, the post suggested BlackRock may be observing how regulators respond to XRP and Solana ETF applications submitted by other firms.

SMQKE concluded that the company appears to be waiting for a stronger regulatory environment, deeper market maturity, and sustained investor demand before making what was described as a calculated move into the XRP ETF sector.

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