Is EchoStar (SATS) Stock One of the Best Ways to Play the SpaceX IPO?

TLDR

• EchoStar holds a 2%-plus stake in SpaceX, received as part of a spectrum deal in 2025, making it a proxy for the anticipated SpaceX IPO.
• SATS stock has doubled since the SpaceX spectrum deal but was trading down 3.2% Thursday at $137.18, off a 52-week high of $147.
• TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams raised his price target to $155, maintaining a Buy rating, valuing EchoStar’s SpaceX stake at around $31 billion.
• EchoStar is not a pure SpaceX play — it carries roughly $22 billion in debt and also holds spectrum, cash, and a satellite TV business.
• GuruFocus flags SATS as heavily overvalued at 614.7% above its intrinsic value estimate, with insiders selling $15.5 million in stock over the past three months.

EchoStar (SATS) stock has become one of the more watched names on Wall Street this week, trading at $137.18 on Thursday — down 3.2% after hitting a 52-week high of $147 on Wednesday.

EchoStar Corporation, SATS

The reason for the attention: SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus Wednesday. The deal could be priced by mid-June, potentially raising $75 billion or more and valuing SpaceX at close to $2 trillion.

EchoStar sits at the center of this story because it holds a 2%-plus stake in SpaceX — a stake it received when it sold spectrum to Elon Musk’s company in 2025 in exchange for about $11.1 billion worth of SpaceX stock, valued at $212 a share at the time.

That deal has turned out to be a winner. SATS stock has doubled since the initial spectrum deal was announced in September. Barron’s estimates EchoStar held around 52 million SpaceX shares before a recent five-for-one split.

Getting into the SpaceX IPO directly won’t be easy for most retail investors. The deal is expected to be dominated by institutional buyers, making EchoStar one of the more accessible routes to SpaceX exposure right now.

What the Analyst Says

TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams raised his price target on EchoStar to $155 from $129 in a note Sunday, keeping his Buy rating. He’s using a sum-of-the-parts model and assuming a $1.75 trillion SpaceX valuation — which looks conservative against current market enthusiasm.

Williams values EchoStar’s SpaceX stake at around $31 billion. Using Barron’s math, that works out to roughly $600 per SpaceX share — consistent with recent private market trades, though those don’t yet reflect the five-for-one split SpaceX completed earlier this month.

Limited Wall Street coverage has complicated the picture. Several analysts work for firms involved in underwriting the SpaceX IPO and are holding off on publishing reports until after the deal prices.

The Risks Worth Knowing

EchoStar is not a clean SpaceX bet. The company also holds cash, spectrum assets, a satellite TV business, and roughly $22 billion in debt. The SpaceX stake represents about half the value inside EchoStar, and controlling shareholder Charlie Ergen hasn’t said much publicly about the stake lately — the company didn’t even hold a conference call after its Q1 earnings.

There’s also a real risk that once SpaceX goes public, investors migrate directly to the pure play and lose interest in EchoStar as a proxy.

GuruFocus adds a layer of caution. Their model puts EchoStar’s intrinsic value at $19.84 — implying the stock is 614.7% overvalued at current prices. The platform gives it a GF Score of 49/100, with a valuation score of just 1/10. The forward P/E sits at 430.7x versus a five-year median of 0.7x.

Insiders have sold approximately $15.5 million worth of SATS stock over the past three months, with no reported buying.

The SpaceX IPO is expected to price by mid-June.

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