Bitcoin (BTC) Slump Persists: Is a Bottom Near? Price Analysis

The current slump in the Bitcoin (BTC) price is dragging on and on. Presently just under $109,000, the bulls will be hoping that the very strong horizontal support at $108,000 will hold and that a bounce can occur from there. Failure to do so could mean a descent to at least $105,000.

Massive options expiry weighs on $BTC price

Around 146,000 BTC contracts expired earlier on Friday, triggering $1.7 billion in liquidations, mostly in long positions. However, with $BTC only really falling slightly less than 1% on this event, it could be considered that the bulls got off relatively lightly. Could this be because the $BTC price is already rather oversold?

Is a $BTC bear flag forming?

Source: TradingView

Looking at $BTC on the 4-hour chart it can be seen that the price is approaching the big support level at $108,000, which is the level where the previous swing low formed a base. There is the possibility that the price is now forming a bear flag. If this is the case, and the measured move plays out, a descent to $105,000 could be the result. This would also entail the formation of a lower low. With a lower high already having been made, things could become quite concerning for the bulls.

That said, all the shorter term Stochastic RSI indicators are near, or at the bottom, and therefore a reversal of price momentum back to the upside may not be too far away.

Implications of an impending death-cross

Source: TradingView

The daily time frame chart reveals that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is posturing to cross below the 100-day SMA (death-cross). This could be signalling a weakening of the longer term trend. If the actual cross-down is accompanied by a breakdown below the $108,000 key support level, this could result in heightened fear and selling pressure. However, if the support holds, this might just be a temporary dip for the 50-day SMA and a recovery could follow.

It does need to be noted that the 200-day SMA is currently climbing, and could meet the price if $BTC falls to the $105,000 horizontal level. 

Could $BTC price drop to $98,000?

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows other bearish concerns. The multi-year ascending trendline is 8 years in the making so far. The last swing high that was rejected at $118,000 also reveals a strong rejection from the major trendline. 

It can be observed that if this current downtrend is not held up by the $108,000 support, and a further spike to the downside takes place, this could take the price down to the convergence of the $98,000 horizontal support and an ascending trendline.

What’s more, the red arrow at the bottom of the chart points to an impending cross-down of the Stochastic RSI indicators. This would negate upside price momentum and could signal a drop to the 100,000 horizontal level and below. This weekend has become a potentially crucial time for the $BTC price. 

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.