Is it a Good Idea to Buy Ethereum Now? ETH Price Faces Issues Never Seen Before

Ethereum price has dropped to levels last seen over a year ago – around $1,500 to $1,600. It is important to remember that over a year ago, when ETH was near $1,500, it started a powerful bull run. A few months later, in August last year, it broke past its all‑time high near $4,900.

Will history repeat itself? In other words, is it time to buy Ethereum at these levels? Let us try to figure out.

Unusual Ethereum On‑Chain Movements and Whale Behavior

Nansen analyst @ASvanevik first flagged a 40,000 ETH outflow, then revised the figure to 80,000 ETH across two transactions. On‑chain analysts soon traced the address to someone tied to Lubin, which still holds about 243,300 ETH worth near $370 million. Large movements from long‑term holders always raise questions. Is this distribution or just reallocation?

According to Lookonchain, an Ethereum OG sold 60,000 ETH worth about $117.25 million and 9,442 wstETH worth about $24 million before the market crash, at an average price of $2,040. The whale also sold 600 WBTC worth about $47.12 million at an average price of $78,538.

After the crash, the whale bought back 611 WBTC worth about $38.68 million at an average price of $63,280, as well as 60,088 ETH worth about $95.3 million and 10,000 wstETH worth about $21.08 million at an average price of $1,606. That is a textbook “sell high, buy low” trade. The whale profited from the volatility while most retail holders suffered losses.

Lowest RSI Ever Recorded – A Historic Capitulation Signal

Michaël van de Poppe tweeted two days ago that Ethereum has reached the lowest daily RSI ever recorded. He called it a “great accomplishment” and said it is close to the end of the bear market. He added that this daily RSI has never happened before, and neither has sentiment hit such a low level. In history, the previous lowest reads on the daily RSI, combined with capitulation, have provided massive returns for those who bought. He believes history will repeat itself on Ethereum.

That is a powerful statement. But technical indicators alone do not guarantee a reversal. The RSI can stay oversold for weeks or months in a prolonged bear market.

ETF Outflows and Short Liquidation Dynamics

Last week, Bitcoin ETFs bled $1.72 billion in a single week. Ethereum ETFs followed with $168 million in outflows while the whole market dumped. Institutional selling pressure remains a headwind.

On the short‑term side, leveraged short liquidity liquidation is up to $5.8 billion. The funding rate has returned to even. Shorts are once again exposing themselves by pushing the price back to $1,670. Expect to see plenty of bear traps to keep the short liquidation fuel going. That might create a lot of volatility. When shorts are crowded, even a small bounce can trigger a cascade of liquidations, sending price higher quickly.

But the opposite is also true – if support at $1,500 breaks, more longs will be forced out.

Read also: ChatGPT Predicts the XRP Price and Ethereum Price if Bitcoin Crashes to $50K

Our Opinion – Is Ethereum Wait or Buy?

Despite the bear market and all the issues Ethereum faces, the network remains by far the most used blockchain. No other chain comes close in terms of total value locked, daily active addresses, or developer activity. But the ETH token itself is a question mark. The market is flooded with layer‑2 solutions that do not pay significant fees to the base layer. The “ultra‑sound money” narrative has faded. And the CLARITY Act is still not law.

The current Ethereum price of around $1,500 is tempting. It is the same level where the last bull run started. However, history does not always repeat exactly. July and August are usually slow months for crypto anyway. The bottom may not be in yet. A drop to $1,200 or even $1,000 is possible if macro conditions worsen or ETF outflows continue.

For long‑term investors, scaling in gradually below $1,500 makes sense. For traders, waiting for a confirmed reversal – such as a daily close above $1,800 or a bullish RSI divergence – is safer. The all‑time low RSI is a strong signal, but it is not a timing tool. Do not try to catch a falling knife with all your capital.

All in all, Ethereum faces issues never seen before: record‑low RSI, large whale movements, persistent ETF outflows, and a crowded short position. An Ethereum OG sold high and bought back lower – smart money is profiting from the volatility.

The network remains the most used, but the token’s investment case is clouded.

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