Bitcoin Could Hit $644,000 If It Tracks Gold’s Rise, According to VanEck

• Gold has traditionally been regarded as a reliable store of value, and Bitcoin is often likened to it, earning the nickname “digital gold.”
• VanEck suggests that if Bitcoin were to become as widely trusted and valuable as gold, it could reach $644,000.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, shared on X that the firm believes Bitcoin (BTC) could eventually reach half of gold’s market capitalization following the next halving.

“We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Sigel wrote.

The halving is a built-in event that occurs roughly every four years. It cuts Bitcoin’s mining rewards in half,  reducing new supply and often increasing scarcity. The most recent halving took place in 2024, with the next one expected in 2028.

Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits around $2.48 trillion, representing a Bitcoin dominance of 58%. The cryptocurrency recently surged to a record high of $126,198 before easing slightly to $124,031, marking a 1.86% decline from its peak. In the past year, Bitcoin has seen an increase of 94% in its value and another 11% in the past month.

Gold has also seen impressive performance this year. We noted in our earlier post that its market capitalization is estimated at about $26 trillion, and prices have surged more than 50% in 2025, reaching a record high of $3,940 per troy ounce. So if Bitcoin’s price rises to $664,000, its market capitalization would be approximately $13.1 trillion.

Gold’s rally has been powered by central banks buying up more reserves, investors seeking safety during uncertain times, and a weaker U.S. dollar. On top of that, global jitters, including political unrest in France, rising inflation in Japan, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, have added to the sense of uncertainty, pushing both gold and Bitcoin higher as people look for stable places to store value.

Bitcoin as a Global Reserve Asset

In a detailed July 2024 blog post, global investment firm VanEck painted a picture of Bitcoin’s long-term potential, imagining a world where the cryptocurrency becomes a core part of the international financial system.

“By 2050, we see Bitcoin (BTC) solidifying its position as a key international medium of exchange, ultimately becoming one of the world’s reserve currencies,” VanEck wrote.

According to the firm’s research, it’s conceivable that within the next few decades, Bitcoin could be used to settle around 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic transactions worldwide. If that vision materializes, central banks, the same institutions that now primarily hold foreign currency reserves and gold, could one day keep about 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin.

VanEck’s analysts used a classic “velocity of money” model. An economic formula that links the money supply, its speed of circulation, and total economic output to estimate Bitcoin’s potential valuation under this scenario.

Factoring in expected global economic growth, institutional adoption, and investor demand, the firm’s model produced a bold outcome: a potential price of $2.9 million per Bitcoin and a total market capitalization of roughly $61 trillion.

To put that in perspective, such a valuation would make Bitcoin one of the most valuable assets in human history, rivaling, or even surpassing, the combined market value of all global equities today.