Topline
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the once-penalized prediction market at over $8 billion.
CANADA – 2025/06/27: In this photo illustration, the Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Key Facts
The all-cash deal makes ICE a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data and includes plans to collaborate on tokenization initiatives.
The investment was announced ahead of Polymarket’s planned U.S. relaunch, which is delayed by the ongoing government shutdown that has paused operations at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—the agency responsible for processing Polymarket’s self-certification filings for new markets, according to Yahoo Finance.
The CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million in 2022 for letting users trade on event outcomes (i.e. elections or crypto prices) without the proper market licenses, ordering the company to shut down those markets and block U.S. users.
Why Is The Move Significant For Prediction Markets?
Intercontinental Exchange is a highly regulated financial giant that is widely viewed as conservative in its investment decisions. A series of recent legal victories, the Trump administration appearing to have a more favorable stance toward the industry compared with former President Joe Biden’s and the credibility of ICE’s backing have improved the outlook for prediction markets in the past year, according to the Financial Times. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan also says Intercontinental Exchange’s investment could also effectively legitimize prediction markets, describing the move as “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream.”
Surprising Fact
Polymarket is trading on its own future, running a market that asks, “Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?” where 99% of traders have bet “Yes”.
Key Background
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has evolved from a fringe crypto prediction platform to one of the fastest growing startups in decentralized finance. The company has attracted backing from high-profile tech billionaires, including Palantir cofounder Peter Thiel (estimated net worth $26.6 billion) and Airbnb cofounder Joe Gebbia (estimated net worth $7.6 billion). In August, Polymarket raised $135 million in a funding round led by Thiel’s Founders Fund, pushing its valuation to $1 billion, according to Pitchbook. Weeks later, Donald Trump Jr. invested in Polymarket and joined its advisory board—shortly before the CFTC granted the platform approval to launch in the U.S., putting it on regulatory footing with rival Kalshi.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinacastellanos/2025/10/07/new-york-stock-exchange-owner-bets-2-billion-on-polymarket-comeback/
