Bitcoin down today: why?

Today, the price of Bitcoin has slightly decreased. 

On Monday, it recorded a new all-time high above $126,000, but by Tuesday it had already fallen below $121,000. 

Yesterday there was a timid attempt at a rebound, with a rise up to $124,000, but at that point, a new decline began. 

Today’s Decline in Bitcoin Price

Today, in truth, the decline stopped just below $122,000, for now, which is a higher level compared to Monday’s.

The fact is that the real attempt at correction post-highs was on Monday, which, however, ended with a rebound. 

It should be noted that the $124,000 reached yesterday is still quite close to the over $126,000 from Monday, therefore it is not even possible to call this movement a true “correction”. 

Also because on Saturday the daily low peak was reached just below $122,000, which is exactly like today. 

In other words, if instead of taking Monday’s peak as a reference, the starting point of this latest rise is taken as a reference, the result is that the price of BTC seems to have entered a small phase of lateralization. 

Today’s decline should therefore be considered as a simple minor physiological drop due to the fact that in recent days it has been oscillating above $122,000, with only a few small exceptions. 

Lateralization

The point is that from Sunday, September 28, a bull run began which only concluded on Monday, October 6. 

To be honest, initially it wasn’t a true bull run, but just a rebound after the decline in the second half of September from about $118,000 to less than $109,000. 

That drop was definitely unjustified, so much so that as soon as it ended, a rebound immediately began. This rebound first brought it back above $114,000 on September 30th, and then starting from October 1st, it continued with a true bull run. 

The bullrun stopped on Monday, but it was not followed by a true correction. 

In other words, until Friday, October 3, there was a true physiological rise, while starting from Saturday, October 4, a phase of high lateralization began, characterized by a good dose of volatility.

This lateralization, which for now is still very brief, started precisely around the 122,000$ mark, which is also more or less the current price level. 

On Sunday the 5th, there was an initial spike above $125,000, but it was immediately followed by a drop below $123,000. On Monday, there was simply a second spike even higher, surpassing $126,000, almost immediately followed by another drop. This second drop, which occurred on Tuesday, was actually excessive, as it pushed even below $121,000, and indeed yesterday there was a rebound that brought the price back above $122,000.

Currently, the line around which the price of Bitcoin is oscillating seems to be positioned around $122,500. As long as it continues to oscillate around this line, the situation should be considered absolutely normal at this stage. 

The Bubble

However, it is necessary to pay attention to an aspect that could prove to be particularly important in the coming weeks. 

In general, the price trend of Bitcoin in the medium term tends to be inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index. 

However, starting from the first of October, and certainly not by chance, this inverse correlation broke, as in the following days the price of Bitcoin rose along with the Dollar Index also rising. 

Such anomalies are not at all rare when it comes to the historical price trend of BTC, but they tend not to last long. In fact, within a few weeks or a few months, they return to normal. 

This can mean two things. 

The first is that by the end of the year, or at the latest by the first months of 2026, the temporary decorrelation of BTC with DXY should theoretically end, thus making the price trend of Bitcoin inversely correlated to that of the Dollar Index. 

The second is that, as long as this decorrelation is in effect, the price of Bitcoin is as if it were free to move as it wishes. 

In the past, in cases like these, the bull run continued for several days, or even for several weeks, before the decorrelation ended, therefore it is possible that a genuine speculative bubble is inflating on the price of BTC. 

For now, it is still a mini-mini-bubble, but by the end of the month, it could evolve into a real mini-bubble, perhaps similar to the one at the end of 2024. However, it cannot be ruled out that in November it could turn into a full-fledged speculative bubble, like the one at the end of 2021, or it might even transform into a mega-speculative bubble, like in December 2017. 

It should still be remembered that in the past no speculative bubble inflated on the price of Bitcoin, no matter how large, has then led to its implosion once it burst. 

Speculative bubbles are indeed always destined to burst, even though it is impossible to predict when and at what levels. 

In the case of Bitcoin, both during the 2014 crash and the 2018 crash, the price plummeted by 85% from previous all-time highs, but then it always bounced back significantly, going on to record new all-time highs a couple of years later.