Crypto Roller Coaster: The Return of “Trump Trade”

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become synonymous with extreme volatility. While investors have grown accustomed to this, last week’s price action was different. Because the ‘Trump trade’ has returned.

In just a few days, Bitcoin’s price swung by over $20,000 between its peak and its trough. A series of macroeconomic issues drove the wild ride, and Bitcoin appears to be facing another tumultuous week ahead.

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From a New High to a Sudden Crash

Last week began on a high note for Bitcoin, as its price surged past $126,000 on Monday to set a new all-time high. Several factors drove the rally.

The price of US risk assets, which have recently shown a high correlation with Bitcoin, has been on a steady uptrend. The market was also buoyed by Sanae Takaichi’s election as the new leader of Japan’s ruling party on October 4.

She is the political heir to Shinzo Abe, the architect of “Abenomics.” The market expects her to pursue a monetary easing policy despite Japan’s high inflation.

After hitting its peak, Bitcoin went through a natural correction, consolidating around the $122,000 level for most of the week. However, the market ran into trouble around 4:00 PM UTC on Friday, when President Donald Trump suddenly posted on social media about China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, calling the move “a very hostile act.”

The Return of the ‘Trump Trade’

He announced that he was not sure if he would meet with President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in two weeks and threatened to impose significant additional tariffs on China. The sudden post sent the risk asset market reeling. Bitcoin’s price immediately plunged to $118,000, and US stock indices like the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all dropped by about 2%.

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But the real bombshell dropped after the US stock market closed. Trump made another post on social media. In it, he announced a new 100% tariff on all Chinese goods and threatened to impose export controls on all key software starting November 1.

The crypto market, the only functioning asset market at the time, absorbed the full impact. Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped to the $102,000 level on some exchanges. At the same time, most altcoins fell more than 30%, with some dropping over 50%.

Was the Crash Just a ‘Liquidation Cascade’?

The crypto market’s mood was subdued after the sharp decline. While a new 100% tariff on China is a clear negative, was it bad enough to cause a $20,000 drop in Bitcoin? Industry experts believe not.

They attribute the sudden and profound drop to the liquidation cascade of futures positions on perpetual decentralized exchanges (DEXs). A domino effect wiped out the massive number of leveraged long positions that had built up during the rally, leading to a sharp sell-off. According to user testimonials, the stop-loss triggers did not work on some exchanges.

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An estimated $19.21 billion was liquidated in 24 hours. While most were long positions ($16.74 billion), $2.47 billion in short positions was also wiped out. This is 12 times the previous record of $1.6 billion from the FTX crash as a daily liquidation.

The liquidation vaporized a massive amount of investor capital. However, there is a positive side to this in the short term. The open interest in crypto derivatives has been completely reset, which had been a significant source of pressure on the market. If a new positive macro signal emerges—such as Trump reversing his 100% tariff threat—a price rally is now possible.

The positive news came surprisingly quickly over the weekend. China did not retaliate with tariffs of its own. Vice President JD Vance mentioned the possibility of a dialogue with China in a media interview. On Sunday morning, Trump posted on social media, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” Following the post, Bitcoin’s price quickly rebounded to the $114,000 level.

With a single word from Trump, asset prices can plummet, and with another, they can recover. This moment brought back memories of the Trump trade we experienced five months ago.

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A Tense Week Ahead

Will the US-China tariff war return to its previous state, or was this just the first skirmish? It’s impossible to know. What is clear is that this issue will likely introduce more volatility into risk asset prices this week. The Trump trade is just getting started.

This week, October 13 is Columbus Day in the US. While major stock markets like the NYSE and Nasdaq will operate as usual, the bond market will be closed for the holiday.

No major data releases are scheduled this week, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to give a public speech on Wednesday. With the government shutdown and the renewed threat of a tariff war, many market participants expect a rate cut.

Any slight hint from Powell regarding the future direction of monetary policy could create significant market volatility. Here’s hoping investors have a profitable week.