The Indiana Pacers Are Going To Be Better Than You Think

After a magical 2024-25 campaign that saw the Indiana Pacers come within one win away from their first NBA Championship in franchise history, everyone expects a letdown to follow in 2025-26 – namely because their best player, Tyrese Haliburton, is expected to be sidelined for the entire season as he recovers from a torn Achilles.

To be fair, that assumption is partially true. It would take nothing short of a miracle for the Pacers to repeat their success from last season. Still, Indiana does have enough without Haliburton to be far better than most people think.

Why The Indiana Pacers Will Still Be Good Without Tyrese Haliburton

Last season, the Pacers had a +1.1 net rating per 100 possessions in the 1,520 minutes that Haliburton was on the bench (per PBP Stats). This isn’t some Earth-shattering pace, but it certainly isn’t a terrible display for a team when their best player was on the bench. For instance, the Denver Nuggets had a net rating of -8 per 100 in 1,400 minutes without Jokic.

A big reason why the Pacers maintained respectability without Haliburton was Andrew Nembhard. As we all know, he’s a great complementary player, but Nembhard has also shown the ability to scale up to a more primary role. We saw this in the final two games of the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals, where Nembhard averaged 28 PPG and 9.5 APG on 68% true shooting and 27.1% usage with Haliburton sidelined by injury. This season, he will have the keys to the car from the get-go, and he very well could turn that into his first-ever All-Star appearance.

Pascal Siakam has become more of a play-finisher since joining the Pacers, but we know that he is also quite capable of creating his own offense. For instance, in 2022-23, he averaged 24.2 PPG on true shooting that was around league average (40th percentile, 56.2%). Between him and Nembhard, the Pacers should have enough on-ball scoring to hover around league average.

Losing Haliburton will also improve their defense. For all his strengths, Haliburton is a below-average defender. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers’ defense was three points per 100 worse when Haliburton was on the floor. Now, they get to fill those minutes with above-average defenders like T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard.

For the first time in a decade, the Pacers will no longer have Myles Turner anchoring the middle. Turner was integral to Indiana’s success over the last couple of years because of his unique ability to protect the paint (95th percentile block rate last season) while also spacing the floor (39.6% from three). Fortunately, Indiana’s front office did a great job of acquiring a cheap approximation of Turner in Jay Huff.

Last season, Huff was in the 92nd percentile in 3-point volume (9.2 threes per 75 possessions, per Dunks & Threes) and the 88th percentile in 3-point efficiency (40.5 percent). On top of that, he was in the 96th percentile in block rate. Huff isn’t the player Turner is, but for the price they got him at (one second-round pick and one second-round pick swap), he’s a damn good replacement.

It is also worth noting that Indiana has a handful of young guys (Sheppard, Bennedict Mathurin, Jarace Walker, Johnny Furphy, and Isaiah Jackson) who could take meaningful leaps in 2025-26.

The Indiana Pacers Should Outperform Their Expected Win Total

Between their stout defensive personnel and head coach Rick Carlisle’s impressive concepts, the Pacers could very well have a top ten defense next season. And if their offense can hover around average, that should be enough to be a low 40-win team. That means that the Pacers should overperform their expected win total (36.5, per FanDuel).

Given the diminished state of the Eastern Conference, being a low 40-win team should be enough to get you a playoff spot – meaning that, contrary to public perception, the Pacers will still be relevant in 2025-26.