The United States Military Isn’t Ready For The Coming ‘Drone Wars’

The United States military has the world’s largest military budget. Although China has a larger navy, the United States has more aircraft carriers and major surface combatants. The United States Air Force is the largest in the world, with a fleet of advanced bombers and stealth fighters.

Yet, despite having the most advanced military force on the planet, the U.S. lags in one potentially game-changing area, notably umanned aerial systems or drones.

CNN warned last month that the United States is playing catch-up. It is a race that the Pentagon can’t afford to lose, and fortunately, progress is being made.

Lessons From Ukraine

The truth is that before Russia launched its unprovoked war in Ukraine in February 2022, few likely fully appreciated the capabilities of drones. Military lessons are only understood in combat. In the years leading up to the First World War, most military leaders understood the capabilities of the machine gun, yet they lacked the foresight to see that their opponents did as well.

The British Army marched into colonial campaigns gleefully believing “whatever happens, we have got the Maxim Gun, and they have not.”

Germany did have the Maxim Gun, the Maschinengewehr 08 or MG08, and more importantly, they had lots of them.

The same was largely true of aircraft carriers in the interwar era. In multiple Fleet Problem naval exercises, aircraft from U.S. Navy aircraft carriers were able to launch sneak attacks at Pearl Harbor, and yet, on December 7, 1941, at dawn, we slept!

Are We Learning Fast Enough?

The good news for the United States military is that we have witnessed the capabilities of drones play out in real time, without losing thousands of tanks, as Russia has. We saw Ukraine carry out its Operation Spiderweb this past June, where small unmanned aerial systems launched from trucks and struck nearly four dozen Russian bombers on the ground at remote bases, destroying nearly a dozen.

What should be a worry is how to counter such attacks.

Eric Brock, CEO of Ondas Holdings, the parent company of drone maker American Robotics, warned that we’re not doing enough to ensure that it isn’t U.S. bases that come under a “Pearl Harbor” style attack.

“The short answer is no, not yet,” Brock explained in an email. “There has been meaningful progress, but the scale and complexity of the drone threat far outpace current counter-UAS capabilities.”

Even as the Department of Defense has invested heavily in recent years to evaluate and field layered CUAS solutions that combine detection, electronic warfare, and kinetic defeat systems, the challenge remains immense.

“We’re not just talking about defending fixed installations or forward operating bases,” added Brock. “Drones are now pervasive across every domain: land, sea, and air. Further, the threat isn’t just on the battlefield as there is a massive vulnerability on US soil across government and the private sector.”

Brock suggested that building an effective defense architecture against the drone threat could require years of sustained infrastructure investment, interoperability across systems, and a strong domestic industrial base to produce these solutions at scale.

“The work done over the past 18–24 months to validate the right mix of sensors, effectors, and command-and-control will start showing up in more systematic deployments in 2026,” he continued. “But this is a generational effort. The U.S. will need to continuously modernize and integrate counter-drone capabilities as a core element of its defense posture, not as a short-term response.”

Attack Of The Drones

The war in Ukraine shouldn’t be overlooked, and the capabilities of drones have significantly changed just in the past three years. That has included loitering munitions, tethered drones, and first-person view unmanned aerial systems.

“It’s absolutely critical,” Brock explained when asked about whether it is necessary to monitor the innovation coming out of that conflict.

“The Russia-Ukraine war has completely reshaped modern warfare, and it’s clear that drones are now central to the fight. We’ve seen how both sides have deployed uncrewed systems at massive scale for intelligence, strike, and electronic warfare missions, with tactics and countermeasures evolving almost weekly,” Brock warned. “For the U.S., this is a real-time case study in how warfare is changing. We need to learn from this experience.”

At the same time, the United States needs to ensure that it develops a “drone industrial base” as capable as those for other major platforms like aircraft carriers and submarines.

“I do think the U.S. is doing plenty on the technology front,” said Allan Evans, CEO of drone maker Unusual Machines, and former World Economic Forum Pioneer.

“There’s a lot of good effort being made right now across different agencies in the government,” Evans explained via email. “The Department of War and the Department of Transportation are both very actively pushing domestic policy. The best thing now is for Congress to open up the government and allow orders to be placed. Right now, the energy, the attitudes, and the approaches are in line with what you’d want to see from the U.S. government.”

Ensuring our domestic vendors can drive similar innovation on unmanned systems is essential.

“Even more critical is the need to accelerate innovation and shorten development cycles,” said Brock. “We also have to take these lessons and apply them to rebuilding a resilient defense industrial base that can produce and sustain these systems at scale. That’s going to require sustained public-private investment and a long-term commitment to fielding drone capabilities as a core element of national defense.”

Another concern should be the supply chain, with too much coming from China.

“There has been too much dependence on components for small drones; Chinese components have absolutely dominated the marketplace and have caused issues for domestic manufacturers like Skydio with their battery shortage,” added Evans. “Larger drone categories have been less exposed as there are aerospace supply chains that have provided some redundancy to the Chinese-made components.”

Drones Are Part Of The Future

The final consideration is that unmanned aerial systems will need to be part of the future of the U.S. military, but they can’t replace other systems overnight. It was a year ago that tech entrepreneur Elon Musk infamously posted on X that “only idiots” were still building manned fighters instead of focusing on drones.

Most military analysts have argued that drones will certainly be force multipliers, but the future of wars being fought entirely by drones is something in the distant future.

“It’s clear we need to strike a balance,” said Brock. “There’s no question that low-cost, attritable drones have changed the battlefield and exposed vulnerabilities in traditional, high-end systems. However, that doesn’t make platforms like the F-35 obsolete. Air dominance remains a decisive advantage for the United States, and crewed aircraft will continue to play a central role in projecting power and coordinating complex operations.”

Over time, the mix of capabilities from the respective platforms is likely to change.

“Drones extend reach and operate where it’s too dangerous or costly to send a pilot,” Brock added. “The future isn’t about choosing one over the other but about integrating manned and unmanned systems into a cohesive force that can adapt, scale, and win in a highly contested environment. Washington and the DOW have to remain focused on communicating these roadmaps to ensure that the private sector can support the long-term investment required here.”