Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will November Save the Day After October Losses?

TLDR

• Bitcoin is trading at $110,012 and down 3.7% in October, marking its first October loss since 2018
• The crypto failed to maintain the traditional “uptober” rally due to US-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve hawkish signals
• Strategy Inc reported strong earnings and Chair Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by end-2025
• Analysts say Bitcoin must close the week above $114,500 to avoid a larger correction
• November historically shows strong performance for Bitcoin with a median return of 10.82%

Bitcoin is currently trading at $110,012 after falling 0.3% on Friday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down 3.7% for the month of October.

This marks Bitcoin’s first October loss since 2018. The performance breaks the “uptober” trend that crypto traders typically expect during this month.

US-China trade tensions have been a major factor in Bitcoin’s October performance. A recent meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping provided few positive signals for crypto markets.

A concrete trade deal between the two countries still appears far off. The Federal Reserve also issued hawkish signals earlier this week that pressured crypto markets.

Bitcoin experienced a flash crash earlier in October from record highs. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break above $110,000 since then.

On-chain and derivatives data shows traders remaining cautious about making large bets. US technology stocks rallied to record highs on artificial intelligence hype, but this had little effect on Bitcoin.

The Nasdaq Composite is set to gain over 4% in October. Bitcoin and broader crypto markets broke away from their typical correlation with tech stocks during the month.

Strategy Earnings Beat Expectations

Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy Inc reported stronger than expected third-quarter earnings. The company’s shares jumped 6% in aftermarket trading on Thursday.

Strategy is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The company benefited from Bitcoin hitting multiple record highs over the past three months.

Chair Michael Saylor said he expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global also reported strong third-quarter earnings on robust trading volumes.

Other cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin’s October decline. Ether fell 1.8% to $3,849 and is down 7% for the month.

XRP dropped 3% and is down 12.6% in October. Solana fell 11% during the month while Cardano lost 24%.

Key Levels to Watch

Analysts are focused on Bitcoin’s weekly close as a crucial indicator. The cryptocurrency dropped below $110,000 on Thursday, hitting a one-week low of $106,700.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $108,000 and $120,000 since July. The crypto has failed to reclaim the range highs after the early October correction.

Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin has dropped 6% to 8% after the last three Federal Open Market Committee meetings. However, the cryptocurrency made new all-time highs before the next meetings.

Bitcoin typically reaches its local bottom 5 to 9 days after FOMC meetings. The crypto then recovers and rallies to new highs in the following weeks.

Pillows warned that Bitcoin must reclaim $113,500 in the coming days to prevent a larger pullback. A weekly close below that level will increase the likelihood of a bigger correction.

Analyst Rekt Capital said Bitcoin must close the week above $114,500 to turn this level back into support. A close above this level would confirm re-entry into the range and enable a move toward $119,000.

Michaël van de Poppe identified $112,000 as the next key area to break before a new all-time high. This level has been crucial resistance in the daily timeframe for several weeks.

A breakout from this area could lead to a retest of the $119,000 to $120,000 zone. A rejection could send the price toward $103,000 or lower.

November is historically one of Bitcoin’s best months. Eight out of twelve Novembers have closed in green with a median return of 10.82%.

The last two months of the year have been when the three previous bull runs topped and the past two bear markets bottomed. Bitcoin currently holds support at $110,000 as traders watch for the weekly close.

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